September 6, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 27

Team Ratings for Round 27

My apologies for missing the first game this week—I am travelling in Europe and have had little opportunity to work on the predictions in time.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.38 6.15 2.20
Roosters 8.29 3.08 5.20
Panthers 7.93 14.73 -6.80
Sharks 5.81 2.94 2.90
Sea Eagles 4.96 -0.48 5.40
Cowboys 2.36 2.47 -0.10
Bulldogs 1.63 -13.35 15.00
Knights -1.08 1.84 -2.90
Broncos -1.72 9.07 -10.80
Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70
Dolphins -2.94 -7.09 4.20
Eels -5.32 0.14 -5.50
Raiders -5.57 -4.31 -1.30
Dragons -5.73 -6.93 1.20
Rabbitohs -6.03 0.87 -6.90
Titans -8.05 -7.89 -0.20
Wests Tigers -12.16 -13.15 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 29 38 – 30 -4.60 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 22 – 34 1.30 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 34 – 12 16.20 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 31 44 – 40 3.30 TRUE
5 Dolphins vs. Broncos Aug 31 40 – 6 -5.90 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 31 28 – 30 18.00 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Titans Sep 01 36 – 14 8.30 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Raiders Sep 01 12 – 14 19.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 05 Storm -7.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 06 Eels -3.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 06 Roosters -11.30
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 07 Dragons 2.80
5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Sep 07 Bulldogs 2.30
6 Panthers vs. Titans Sep 07 Panthers 19.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 08 Sea Eagles 2.10
8 Knights vs. Dolphins Sep 08 Knights 4.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »