Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington | 12.13 | 10.63 | 1.50 |
| Waikato | 6.28 | 5.30 | 1.00 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 5.35 | 6.09 | -0.70 |
| Canterbury | 4.52 | 6.01 | -1.50 |
| Taranaki | 4.31 | 5.21 | -0.90 |
| Tasman | 3.35 | 2.17 | 1.20 |
| Bay of Plenty | 2.35 | 3.52 | -1.20 |
| Auckland | 2.09 | 3.00 | -0.90 |
| North Harbour | 2.06 | 3.06 | -1.00 |
| Otago | -2.36 | -3.26 | 0.90 |
| Counties Manukau | -4.21 | -5.22 | 1.00 |
| Northland | -5.33 | -4.29 | -1.00 |
| Southland | -9.07 | -10.05 | 1.00 |
| Manawatu | -17.98 | -18.73 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northland vs. Southland | Aug 30 | 26 – 31 | 8.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 31 | 33 – 36 | 11.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Otago | Aug 31 | 22 – 18 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Waikato vs. Auckland | Aug 31 | 39 – 21 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 31 | 34 – 15 | 1.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Canterbury vs. Wellington | Sep 01 | 21 – 46 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 01 | 26 – 38 | -21.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Waikato vs. Northland | Sep 04 | 34 – 19 | 14.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu | Sep 06 | Bay of Plenty | 23.30 |
| 2 | Wellington vs. Southland | Sep 07 | Wellington | 24.20 |
| 3 | Auckland vs. North Harbour | Sep 07 | Auckland | 3.00 |
| 4 | Otago vs. Canterbury | Sep 07 | Canterbury | -3.90 |
| 5 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman | Sep 07 | Hawke’s Bay | 5.00 |
| 6 | Taranaki vs. Waikato | Sep 08 | Taranaki | 1.00 |
| 7 | Counties Manukau vs. Northland | Sep 08 | Counties Manukau | 4.10 |
| 8 | Otago vs. Wellington | Sep 11 | Wellington | -11.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »