August 26, 2024

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 19.83 6.04 13.80
Hawthorn Hawks 18.31 -11.08 29.40
Brisbane Lions 16.61 17.47 -0.90
Sydney Swans 16.44 9.23 7.20
Port Adelaide Power 14.33 8.83 5.50
Geelong Cats 9.97 10.50 -0.50
GWS Giants 9.90 12.60 -2.70
Collingwood 6.73 14.87 -8.10
Carlton Blues 6.03 9.73 -3.70
Fremantle Dockers 5.35 0.40 5.00
Adelaide Crows 3.14 9.56 -6.40
Melbourne Demons 1.12 13.91 -12.80
St Kilda Saints 0.29 -0.63 0.90
Gold Coast Suns -6.56 -4.60 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -10.33 -17.70 7.40
Richmond Tigers -31.43 -6.13 -25.30
West Coast Eagles -36.56 -43.10 6.50
North Melbourne -39.02 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 207 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Aug 23 57 – 103 0.10 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 24 168 – 75 50.20 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 24 66 – 94 -12.40 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 24 170 – 46 58.70 TRUE
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 24 87 – 67 38.60 TRUE
6 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 24 121 – 90 19.80 TRUE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Aug 25 98 – 61 16.00 TRUE
8 Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 25 74 – 76 7.90 FALSE
9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 25 67 – 87 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats Sep 05 Port Adelaide Power 13.40
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sep 06 Hawthorn Hawks -7.50
3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants Sep 07 Sydney Swans 15.50
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Sep 07 Brisbane Lions 19.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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