August 20, 2024

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.46 10.63 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.48 6.09 -0.60
Taranaki 5.38 5.21 0.20
Waikato 5.12 5.30 -0.20
Canterbury 4.92 6.01 -1.10
Bay of Plenty 3.59 3.52 0.10
Tasman 3.26 2.17 1.10
North Harbour 3.00 3.06 -0.10
Auckland 2.37 3.00 -0.60
Otago -2.62 -3.26 0.60
Northland -4.34 -4.29 -0.10
Counties Manukau -5.04 -5.22 0.20
Southland -9.43 -10.05 0.60
Manawatu -18.68 -18.73 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Auckland Aug 16 27 – 25 -3.30 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 17 35 – 18 17.40 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 17 22 – 7 -0.80 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Aug 17 31 – 17 19.10 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Aug 18 24 – 20 3.50 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 18 26 – 19 8.40 TRUE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 18 20 – 26 -7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 23 Hawke’s Bay 12.80
2 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Aug 24 Tasman -5.30
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 24 Auckland 0.50
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Aug 24 Taranaki -11.80
5 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 25 Bay of Plenty -3.20
6 Wellington vs. Manawatu Aug 25 Wellington 32.10
7 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 25 North Harbour 0.90
8 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 Canterbury 2.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    steven skells

    Will you be updating your great NPC predictions? The last two weeks are missing.

    6 days ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Sorry about that. Lost track while travelling and forgot to give the Week 5 predictions. Weeks 5 and 6 posted now.

      5 days ago

  • avatar
    ben Cosbie Ross

    Hi David

    I think the score on the hawkes bay v tasman score is incorrect and am assuming it would impact your model.

    I look forward to seeing your model work each week and was out in NZ for 10 weeks.

    Thanks
    ben

    4 days ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Thanks for the heads up.

      A monumental stuff up on my behalf, unless they were wrong where I got them from. There were 3 wrong scores. I am currently having to enter results by hand rather than web scraping which is always likely to be error prone.

      I have posted the updated predictions.

      2 days ago