AFL Predictions for Week 25
Team Ratings for Week 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 18.37 | 6.04 | 12.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 17.93 | 17.47 | 0.50 |
| Sydney Swans | 15.21 | 9.23 | 6.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 14.48 | -11.08 | 25.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 12.74 | 8.83 | 3.90 |
| GWS Giants | 11.36 | 12.60 | -1.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 7.29 | 10.50 | -3.20 |
| Carlton Blues | 7.13 | 9.73 | -2.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.94 | 0.40 | 6.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 4.37 | 9.56 | -5.20 |
| Melbourne Demons | 3.97 | 13.91 | -9.90 |
| Collingwood | 3.88 | 14.87 | -11.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.80 | -0.63 | -0.20 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -8.27 | -4.60 | -3.70 |
| Essendon Bombers | -11.65 | -17.70 | 6.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -29.72 | -6.13 | -23.60 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.88 | -43.10 | 9.20 |
| North Melbourne | -35.18 | -25.73 | -9.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 198 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 16 | 59 – 98 | -14.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 17 | 63 – 117 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 17 | 101 – 92 | 14.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 17 | 79 – 78 | -6.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 17 | 80 – 58 | 4.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 17 | 107 – 89 | -1.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne | Aug 18 | 138 – 42 | 47.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 18 | 131 – 68 | 41.20 | TRUE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 18 | 34 – 99 | -27.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 25
Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood | Aug 23 | Melbourne Demons | 0.10 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 50.20 |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 24 | Gold Coast Suns | -12.40 |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne | Aug 24 | Hawthorn Hawks | 58.70 |
| 5 | Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 24 | Brisbane Lions | 38.60 |
| 6 | Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 19.80 |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants | Aug 25 | Western Bulldogs | 16.00 |
| 8 | Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 25 | Carlton Blues | 7.90 |
| 9 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 25 | Fremantle Dockers | 3.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »