AFL Predictions for Week 24
Team Ratings for Week 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 18.79 | 17.47 | 1.30 |
| Western Bulldogs | 15.39 | 6.04 | 9.40 |
| Sydney Swans | 13.55 | 9.23 | 4.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 12.96 | -11.08 | 24.00 |
| GWS Giants | 11.98 | 12.60 | -0.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 10.81 | 8.83 | 2.00 |
| Geelong Cats | 8.69 | 10.50 | -1.80 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.32 | 0.40 | 5.90 |
| Adelaide Crows | 6.30 | 9.56 | -3.30 |
| Carlton Blues | 4.71 | 9.73 | -5.00 |
| Collingwood | 3.02 | 14.87 | -11.80 |
| Melbourne Demons | 0.52 | 13.91 | -13.40 |
| St Kilda Saints | -2.20 | -0.63 | -1.60 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -4.82 | -4.60 | -0.20 |
| Essendon Bombers | -9.98 | -17.70 | 7.70 |
| Richmond Tigers | -28.20 | -6.13 | -22.10 |
| West Coast Eagles | -31.47 | -43.10 | 11.60 |
| North Melbourne | -32.21 | -25.73 | -6.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 189 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood | Aug 09 | 89 – 86 | 22.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants | Aug 10 | 64 – 82 | 20.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 10 | 97 – 102 | 12.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 10 | 62 – 73 | 9.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 10 | 86 – 87 | 5.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 10 | 51 – 53 | -1.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 11 | 38 – 112 | 0.30 | FALSE |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 11 | 51 – 99 | -31.30 | TRUE |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs | Aug 11 | 111 – 72 | -5.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 24
Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 16 | Sydney Swans | -14.50 |
| 2 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 17 | Gold Coast Suns | 3.70 |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 17 | GWS Giants | 14.70 |
| 4 | Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 17 | Brisbane Lions | -6.80 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 17 | Port Adelaide Power | 4.50 |
| 6 | St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 17 | Geelong Cats | -1.90 |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne | Aug 18 | Western Bulldogs | 47.60 |
| 8 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 18 | Hawthorn Hawks | 41.20 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 18 | Carlton Blues | -27.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »