AFL Predictions for Week 23
Team Ratings for Week 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 21.25 | 17.47 | 3.80 |
| Western Bulldogs | 18.17 | 6.04 | 12.10 |
| Sydney Swans | 14.91 | 9.23 | 5.70 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 10.72 | 8.83 | 1.90 |
| GWS Giants | 9.52 | 12.60 | -3.10 |
| Carlton Blues | 9.00 | 9.73 | -0.70 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 8.68 | -11.08 | 19.80 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 7.75 | 0.40 | 7.40 |
| Geelong Cats | 7.25 | 10.50 | -3.20 |
| Adelaide Crows | 3.52 | 9.56 | -6.00 |
| Collingwood | 1.67 | 14.87 | -13.20 |
| Melbourne Demons | 0.62 | 13.91 | -13.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | -4.03 | -0.63 | -3.40 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -5.50 | -4.60 | -0.90 |
| Essendon Bombers | -9.30 | -17.70 | 8.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -26.37 | -6.13 | -20.20 |
| North Melbourne | -30.34 | -25.73 | -4.60 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.34 | -43.10 | 9.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 180 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 02 | 110 – 59 | 22.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 02 | 97 – 87 | -23.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 03 | 90 – 77 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 03 | 90 – 85 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 03 | 84 – 81 | -10.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 03 | 148 – 36 | -8.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 04 | 84 – 82 | 12.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 04 | 90 – 89 | -10.60 | FALSE |
| 9 | St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 04 | 39 – 124 | -7.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 23
Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood | Aug 09 | Sydney Swans | 22.20 |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants | Aug 10 | Brisbane Lions | 20.70 |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 10 | North Melbourne | 12.00 |
| 4 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats | Aug 10 | Fremantle Dockers | 9.50 |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 10 | Essendon Bombers | 5.20 |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 10 | Port Adelaide Power | -1.10 |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 11 | Carlton Blues | 0.30 |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 11 | St Kilda Saints | -31.30 |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs | Aug 11 | Western Bulldogs | -5.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »