AFL Predictions for Week 22
Team Ratings for Week 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 21.35 | 9.23 | 12.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 16.80 | 17.47 | -0.70 |
| Western Bulldogs | 16.29 | 6.04 | 10.30 |
| GWS Giants | 10.63 | 12.60 | -2.00 |
| Carlton Blues | 10.45 | 9.73 | 0.70 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 9.03 | 0.40 | 8.60 |
| Geelong Cats | 8.34 | 10.50 | -2.20 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 7.57 | -11.08 | 18.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 4.28 | 8.83 | -4.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | 2.50 | 13.91 | -11.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 2.43 | 9.56 | -7.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.41 | -0.63 | 1.00 |
| Collingwood | 0.21 | 14.87 | -14.70 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -3.34 | -4.60 | 1.30 |
| Essendon Bombers | -10.57 | -17.70 | 7.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -25.25 | -6.13 | -19.10 |
| North Melbourne | -31.46 | -25.73 | -5.70 |
| West Coast Eagles | -35.50 | -43.10 | 7.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 171 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 26 | 65 – 79 | 19.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 27 | 66 – 106 | -28.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 27 | 65 – 93 | -8.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | St Kilda Saints vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 27 | 108 – 55 | 5.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants | Jul 27 | 83 – 85 | 1.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 27 | 110 – 75 | 47.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 28 | 93 – 67 | 25.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 28 | 48 – 87 | 21.20 | FALSE |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 28 | 58 – 124 | 12.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 22
Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 02 | Western Bulldogs | 22.80 |
| 2 | West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 02 | Gold Coast Suns | -23.20 |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 03 | North Melbourne | 2.80 |
| 4 | Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 03 | Geelong Cats | 14.90 |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 03 | Carlton Blues | -10.20 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 03 | Sydney Swans | -8.10 |
| 7 | GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 04 | GWS Giants | 12.10 |
| 8 | Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 04 | Fremantle Dockers | -10.60 |
| 9 | St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 04 | Brisbane Lions | -7.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »