AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1
Team Ratings for Finals Week 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | 19.83 | 6.04 | 13.80 |
Hawthorn Hawks | 18.31 | -11.08 | 29.40 |
Brisbane Lions | 16.61 | 17.47 | -0.90 |
Sydney Swans | 16.44 | 9.23 | 7.20 |
Port Adelaide Power | 14.33 | 8.83 | 5.50 |
Geelong Cats | 9.97 | 10.50 | -0.50 |
GWS Giants | 9.90 | 12.60 | -2.70 |
Collingwood | 6.73 | 14.87 | -8.10 |
Carlton Blues | 6.03 | 9.73 | -3.70 |
Fremantle Dockers | 5.35 | 0.40 | 5.00 |
Adelaide Crows | 3.14 | 9.56 | -6.40 |
Melbourne Demons | 1.12 | 13.91 | -12.80 |
St Kilda Saints | 0.29 | -0.63 | 0.90 |
Gold Coast Suns | -6.56 | -4.60 | -2.00 |
Essendon Bombers | -10.33 | -17.70 | 7.40 |
Richmond Tigers | -31.43 | -6.13 | -25.30 |
West Coast Eagles | -36.56 | -43.10 | 6.50 |
North Melbourne | -39.02 | -25.73 | -13.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 207 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood | Aug 23 | 57 – 103 | 0.10 | FALSE |
2 | Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 24 | 168 – 75 | 50.20 | TRUE |
3 | Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 24 | 66 – 94 | -12.40 | TRUE |
4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne | Aug 24 | 170 – 46 | 58.70 | TRUE |
5 | Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 24 | 87 – 67 | 38.60 | TRUE |
6 | Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 24 | 121 – 90 | 19.80 | TRUE |
7 | Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants | Aug 25 | 98 – 61 | 16.00 | TRUE |
8 | Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 25 | 74 – 76 | 7.90 | FALSE |
9 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 25 | 67 – 87 | 3.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Finals Week 1
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats | Sep 05 | Port Adelaide Power | 13.40 |
2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Sep 06 | Hawthorn Hawks | -7.50 |
3 | Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants | Sep 07 | Sydney Swans | 15.50 |
4 | Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues | Sep 07 | Brisbane Lions | 19.60 |