AFL Predictions for Week 21
Team Ratings for Week 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 24.93 | 9.23 | 15.70 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15.42 | 17.47 | -2.10 |
| Western Bulldogs | 12.71 | 6.04 | 6.70 |
| Carlton Blues | 12.63 | 9.73 | 2.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 10.37 | 0.40 | 10.00 |
| GWS Giants | 10.23 | 12.60 | -2.40 |
| Geelong Cats | 7.05 | 10.50 | -3.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 6.93 | 9.56 | -2.60 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 3.07 | -11.08 | 14.10 |
| Melbourne Demons | 2.90 | 13.91 | -11.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 2.10 | 8.83 | -6.70 |
| Collingwood | 0.13 | 14.87 | -14.70 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -1.96 | -4.60 | 2.60 |
| St Kilda Saints | -2.54 | -0.63 | -1.90 |
| Essendon Bombers | -7.63 | -17.70 | 10.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -25.17 | -6.13 | -19.00 |
| North Melbourne | -30.16 | -25.73 | -4.40 |
| West Coast Eagles | -36.84 | -43.10 | 6.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 162 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 19 | 113 – 115 | -6.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 20 | 89 – 50 | 18.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 20 | 113 – 41 | 39.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood | Jul 20 | 133 – 67 | -5.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 20 | 48 – 95 | 10.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 20 | 116 – 75 | 34.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 21 | 79 – 77 | -1.20 | FALSE |
| 8 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 21 | 116 – 66 | 11.60 | TRUE |
| 9 | Carlton Blues vs. North Melbourne | Jul 21 | 107 – 88 | 46.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 21
Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 26 | Carlton Blues | 19.50 |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 27 | Geelong Cats | -28.20 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 27 | Brisbane Lions | -8.40 |
| 4 | St Kilda Saints vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 27 | St Kilda Saints | 5.10 |
| 5 | Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants | Jul 27 | Melbourne Demons | 1.70 |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 27 | Fremantle Dockers | 47.20 |
| 7 | Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 28 | Collingwood | 25.30 |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 28 | Sydney Swans | 21.20 |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 28 | Adelaide Crows | 12.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »