AFL Predictions for Week 20
Team Ratings for Week 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 25.28 | 9.23 | 16.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15.07 | 17.47 | -2.40 |
| Carlton Blues | 14.47 | 9.73 | 4.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 10.47 | 10.50 | -0.00 |
| Western Bulldogs | 9.28 | 6.04 | 3.20 |
| GWS Giants | 8.78 | 12.60 | -3.80 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 7.93 | 0.40 | 7.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 7.43 | 9.56 | -2.10 |
| Melbourne Demons | 5.34 | 13.91 | -8.60 |
| Collingwood | 4.27 | 14.87 | -10.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 1.43 | 8.83 | -7.40 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -0.52 | -4.60 | 4.10 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -1.07 | -11.08 | 10.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -4.69 | -0.63 | -4.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -8.13 | -17.70 | 9.60 |
| Richmond Tigers | -24.50 | -6.13 | -18.40 |
| North Melbourne | -32.00 | -25.73 | -6.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.69 | -43.10 | 8.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 153 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 12 | 71 – 91 | 6.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 13 | 87 – 74 | -3.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne | Jul 13 | 138 – 59 | 62.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 13 | 100 – 86 | -18.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 13 | 71 – 39 | 18.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 13 | 84 – 67 | 12.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 14 | 96 – 82 | 5.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. GWS Giants | Jul 14 | 84 – 108 | -24.40 | TRUE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 14 | 93 – 106 | -44.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 20
Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 19 | Adelaide Crows | -6.60 |
| 2 | GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 20 | GWS Giants | 18.30 |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 20 | St Kilda Saints | 39.00 |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood | Jul 20 | Collingwood | -5.30 |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 20 | Geelong Cats | 10.20 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 20 | Port Adelaide Power | 34.90 |
| 7 | Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 21 | Sydney Swans | -1.20 |
| 8 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 21 | Fremantle Dockers | 11.60 |
| 9 | Carlton Blues vs. North Melbourne | Jul 21 | Carlton Blues | 46.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »