AFL Predictions for Week 19
Team Ratings for Week 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 23.49 | 9.23 | 14.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 17.16 | 17.47 | -0.30 |
| Carlton Blues | 16.59 | 9.73 | 6.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 9.76 | 0.40 | 9.40 |
| GWS Giants | 8.82 | 12.60 | -3.80 |
| Geelong Cats | 8.70 | 10.50 | -1.80 |
| Western Bulldogs | 7.16 | 6.04 | 1.10 |
| Collingwood | 6.04 | 14.87 | -8.80 |
| Adelaide Crows | 5.90 | 9.56 | -3.70 |
| Melbourne Demons | 4.85 | 13.91 | -9.10 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 2.41 | 8.83 | -6.40 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -1.50 | -4.60 | 3.10 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -2.90 | -11.08 | 8.20 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.15 | -0.63 | -2.50 |
| Essendon Bombers | -7.63 | -17.70 | 10.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -24.54 | -6.13 | -18.40 |
| North Melbourne | -30.21 | -25.73 | -4.50 |
| West Coast Eagles | -36.78 | -43.10 | 6.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 05 | 80 – 92 | 17.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 06 | 87 – 83 | -23.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 06 | 102 – 54 | -1.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 06 | 110 – 59 | 16.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 06 | 116 – 104 | -1.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 06 | 105 – 54 | 41.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 07 | 112 – 58 | 49.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 07 | 84 – 82 | -20.80 | FALSE |
| 9 | Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 07 | 97 – 86 | 22.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 19
Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 12 | Collingwood | 6.30 |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 13 | Fremantle Dockers | -3.70 |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne | Jul 13 | Sydney Swans | 62.70 |
| 4 | Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 13 | Carlton Blues | -18.40 |
| 5 | Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 13 | Adelaide Crows | 18.00 |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 13 | Melbourne Demons | 12.50 |
| 7 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 14 | Gold Coast Suns | 5.10 |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. GWS Giants | Jul 14 | GWS Giants | -24.40 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 14 | Brisbane Lions | -44.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »