AFL Predictions for Week 18
Team Ratings for Week 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 25.06 | 9.23 | 15.80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 18.46 | 17.47 | 1.00 |
| Carlton Blues | 18.11 | 9.73 | 8.40 |
| Western Bulldogs | 10.21 | 6.04 | 4.20 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 8.68 | 0.40 | 8.30 |
| Collingwood | 8.00 | 14.87 | -6.90 |
| GWS Giants | 7.30 | 12.60 | -5.30 |
| Geelong Cats | 6.45 | 10.50 | -4.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 4.59 | 9.56 | -5.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | 4.37 | 13.91 | -9.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 0.34 | -4.60 | 4.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -0.64 | 8.83 | -9.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -0.65 | -11.08 | 10.40 |
| St Kilda Saints | -4.72 | -0.63 | -4.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -9.59 | -17.70 | 8.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -23.46 | -6.13 | -17.30 |
| North Melbourne | -32.04 | -25.73 | -6.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -36.31 | -43.10 | 6.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 135 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 28 | 86 – 81 | 26.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 29 | 60 – 77 | -35.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 29 | 98 – 99 | 29.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood | Jun 29 | 101 – 90 | -1.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants | Jun 29 | 94 – 78 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 29 | 105 – 60 | 21.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 30 | 60 – 62 | 6.90 | FALSE |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 30 | 70 – 131 | -28.30 | TRUE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jun 30 | 33 – 94 | -21.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 18
Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 05 | Collingwood | 17.60 |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 06 | Gold Coast Suns | -23.40 |
| 3 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 06 | Western Bulldogs | -1.90 |
| 4 | Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 06 | Geelong Cats | 16.10 |
| 5 | GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 06 | Carlton Blues | -1.80 |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 06 | Fremantle Dockers | 41.10 |
| 7 | Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 07 | Melbourne Demons | 49.70 |
| 8 | St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 07 | Sydney Swans | -20.80 |
| 9 | Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 07 | Brisbane Lions | 22.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »