Posts from July 2024 (2)

July 2, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 9.25 14.73 -5.50
Roosters 8.89 3.08 5.80
Storm 6.60 6.15 0.40
Sharks 3.33 2.94 0.40
Broncos 3.30 9.07 -5.80
Sea Eagles 1.39 -0.48 1.90
Cowboys 0.57 2.47 -1.90
Warriors -1.87 -0.07 -1.80
Knights -2.42 1.84 -4.30
Bulldogs -2.43 -13.35 10.90
Rabbitohs -2.66 0.87 -3.50
Dolphins -2.81 -7.09 4.30
Dragons -3.66 -6.93 3.30
Eels -5.41 0.14 -5.50
Titans -5.91 -7.89 2.00
Raiders -6.72 -4.31 -2.40
Wests Tigers -11.43 -13.15 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 28 15 – 14 -3.30 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 29 32 – 16 -0.10 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Eels Jun 29 34 – 26 5.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Raiders Jun 29 16 – 6 17.20 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Jun 30 26 – 6 -0.30 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Jun 30 6 – 16 14.60 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 30 40 – 6 21.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 Eels 0.20
2 Sharks vs. Titans Jul 05 Sharks 9.20
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 05 Panthers -3.00
4 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Jul 06 Bulldogs 6.40
5 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 06 Storm -15.00
6 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 06 Cowboys 2.20
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 07 Roosters 15.60
8 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 07 Knights -1.30

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 18

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Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 25.06 9.23 15.80
Brisbane Lions 18.46 17.47 1.00
Carlton Blues 18.11 9.73 8.40
Western Bulldogs 10.21 6.04 4.20
Fremantle Dockers 8.68 0.40 8.30
Collingwood 8.00 14.87 -6.90
GWS Giants 7.30 12.60 -5.30
Geelong Cats 6.45 10.50 -4.00
Adelaide Crows 4.59 9.56 -5.00
Melbourne Demons 4.37 13.91 -9.50
Gold Coast Suns 0.34 -4.60 4.90
Port Adelaide Power -0.64 8.83 -9.50
Hawthorn Hawks -0.65 -11.08 10.40
St Kilda Saints -4.72 -0.63 -4.10
Essendon Bombers -9.59 -17.70 8.10
Richmond Tigers -23.46 -6.13 -17.30
North Melbourne -32.04 -25.73 -6.30
West Coast Eagles -36.31 -43.10 6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 28 86 – 81 26.00 TRUE
2 North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 29 60 – 77 -35.90 TRUE
3 Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 29 98 – 99 29.40 FALSE
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jun 29 101 – 90 -1.40 FALSE
5 Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants Jun 29 94 – 78 3.60 TRUE
6 Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 29 105 – 60 21.90 TRUE
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 30 60 – 62 6.90 FALSE
8 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 30 70 – 131 -28.30 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 30 33 – 94 -21.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 05 Collingwood 17.60
2 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 06 Gold Coast Suns -23.40
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 06 Western Bulldogs -1.90
4 Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 06 Geelong Cats 16.10
5 GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues Jul 06 Carlton Blues -1.80
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 06 Fremantle Dockers 41.10
7 Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 07 Melbourne Demons 49.70
8 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Jul 07 Sydney Swans -20.80
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 07 Brisbane Lions 22.90

 

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