June 25, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.72 14.73 -4.00
Roosters 8.14 3.08 5.10
Storm 7.06 6.15 0.90
Broncos 4.28 9.07 -4.80
Sharks 3.61 2.94 0.70
Sea Eagles 1.39 -0.48 1.90
Cowboys -0.90 2.47 -3.40
Dolphins -1.59 -7.09 5.50
Knights -2.58 1.84 -4.40
Rabbitohs -2.66 0.87 -3.50
Bulldogs -2.71 -13.35 10.60
Warriors -2.85 -0.07 -2.80
Dragons -4.88 -6.93 2.00
Eels -5.25 0.14 -5.40
Titans -5.91 -7.89 2.00
Raiders -7.18 -4.31 -2.90
Wests Tigers -10.68 -13.15 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 121 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Storm Jun 21 24 – 30 -5.60 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 22 66 – 6 -3.30 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 22 26 – 8 13.20 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 22 14 – 0 -3.10 FALSE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 23 48 – 24 -3.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 28 Sharks -3.30
2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 29 Broncos -0.10
3 Knights vs. Eels Jun 29 Knights 5.70
4 Storm vs. Raiders Jun 29 Storm 17.20
5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Jun 30 Dolphins -0.30
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Jun 30 Panthers 14.60
7 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 30 Roosters 21.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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