AFL Predictions for Week 17
Team Ratings for Week 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 27.06 | 9.23 | 17.80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 19.93 | 17.47 | 2.50 |
| Carlton Blues | 15.97 | 9.73 | 6.20 |
| Western Bulldogs | 11.55 | 6.04 | 5.50 |
| Collingwood | 9.36 | 14.87 | -5.50 |
| GWS Giants | 8.67 | 12.60 | -3.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.67 | 0.40 | 6.30 |
| Geelong Cats | 4.86 | 10.50 | -5.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 3.22 | 9.56 | -6.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | 2.91 | 13.91 | -11.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -1.03 | -4.60 | 3.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -1.62 | 8.83 | -10.40 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -3.14 | -11.08 | 7.90 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.74 | -0.63 | -3.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -8.00 | -17.70 | 9.70 |
| Richmond Tigers | -21.33 | -6.13 | -15.20 |
| North Melbourne | -33.38 | -25.73 | -7.70 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.82 | -43.10 | 9.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 21 | 138 – 75 | 14.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 22 | 73 – 152 | -3.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 22 | 75 – 102 | -6.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne | Jun 22 | 70 – 67 | 51.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 23 | 122 – 92 | 36.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 23 | 85 – 65 | 15.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 17
Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 28 | Brisbane Lions | 26.00 |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 29 | Western Bulldogs | -35.90 |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 29 | Sydney Swans | 29.40 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood | Jun 29 | Collingwood | -1.40 |
| 5 | Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants | Jun 29 | Adelaide Crows | 3.60 |
| 6 | Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 29 | Geelong Cats | 21.90 |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 30 | St Kilda Saints | 6.90 |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 30 | Carlton Blues | -28.30 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jun 30 | Hawthorn Hawks | -21.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »