AFL Predictions for Week 16
Team Ratings for Week 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 25.63 | 9.23 | 16.40 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15.61 | 17.47 | -1.90 |
| Carlton Blues | 12.97 | 9.73 | 3.20 |
| Western Bulldogs | 11.55 | 6.04 | 5.50 |
| GWS Giants | 10.10 | 12.60 | -2.50 |
| Collingwood | 9.36 | 14.87 | -5.50 |
| Geelong Cats | 7.86 | 10.50 | -2.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.21 | 0.40 | 5.80 |
| Melbourne Demons | 5.87 | 13.91 | -8.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 3.22 | 9.56 | -6.30 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 2.70 | 8.83 | -6.10 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -0.56 | -4.60 | 4.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -3.14 | -11.08 | 7.90 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.74 | -0.63 | -3.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -7.32 | -17.70 | 10.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -21.33 | -6.13 | -15.20 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.49 | -43.10 | 8.60 |
| North Melbourne | -36.35 | -25.73 | -10.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 14 | 126 – 106 | 30.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 15 | 149 – 82 | 7.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jun 15 | 49 – 97 | -13.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 15 | 67 – 109 | -9.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Collingwood | Jun 16 | 118 – 119 | -41.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 16 | 73 – 51 | 14.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 16
Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 21 | Carlton Blues | 14.10 |
| 2 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 22 | Brisbane Lions | -3.90 |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 22 | Sydney Swans | -6.50 |
| 4 | Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne | Jun 22 | Melbourne Demons | 51.20 |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 23 | Essendon Bombers | 36.20 |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 23 | Fremantle Dockers | 15.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »