June 11, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.91 14.73 -3.80
Roosters 7.83 3.08 4.70
Storm 6.01 6.15 -0.10
Broncos 5.32 9.07 -3.70
Sharks 4.33 2.94 1.40
Sea Eagles 2.02 -0.48 2.50
Warriors 1.76 -0.07 1.80
Cowboys -2.03 2.47 -4.50
Dolphins -2.28 -7.09 4.80
Bulldogs -2.40 -13.35 11.00
Knights -2.77 1.84 -4.60
Raiders -4.40 -4.31 -0.10
Dragons -4.47 -6.93 2.50
Rabbitohs -4.74 0.87 -5.60
Eels -5.25 0.14 -5.40
Titans -8.95 -7.89 -1.10
Wests Tigers -12.89 -13.15 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jun 07 56 – 14 7.40 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 12 – 46 3.10 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jun 08 12 – 42 7.60 FALSE
4 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 08 12 – 22 5.90 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Knights Jun 09 36 – 28 12.30 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 09 32 – 22 12.20 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 10 22 – 18 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dolphins Jun 13 Sharks 9.60
2 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 14 Raiders 0.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jun 14 Broncos -7.10
4 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 15 Titans -0.90
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 15 Warriors 2.80
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 15 Roosters -10.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 16 Sea Eagles 9.50
8 Knights vs. Panthers Jun 16 Panthers -10.70

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »