AFL Predictions for Week 15
Team Ratings for Week 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 23.49 | 9.23 | 14.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 16.78 | 17.47 | -0.70 |
| Carlton Blues | 12.97 | 9.73 | 3.20 |
| Collingwood | 11.94 | 14.87 | -2.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 9.77 | 0.40 | 9.40 |
| GWS Giants | 9.31 | 12.60 | -3.30 |
| Western Bulldogs | 7.99 | 6.04 | 2.00 |
| Geelong Cats | 7.86 | 10.50 | -2.60 |
| Melbourne Demons | 5.87 | 13.91 | -8.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 5.37 | 9.56 | -4.20 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 3.49 | 8.83 | -5.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -0.56 | -4.60 | 4.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -4.92 | -0.63 | -4.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -5.36 | -11.08 | 5.70 |
| Essendon Bombers | -7.32 | -17.70 | 10.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -19.11 | -6.13 | -13.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.49 | -43.10 | 8.60 |
| North Melbourne | -38.92 | -25.73 | -13.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 114 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers | Jun 06 | 71 – 79 | 39.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 07 | 71 – 114 | 6.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants | Jun 08 | 85 – 79 | -9.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne | Jun 08 | 65 – 74 | 16.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 08 | 51 – 48 | 5.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 09 | 112 – 82 | 23.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 09 | 70 – 96 | -18.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 10 | 89 – 51 | 1.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 14 | Brisbane Lions | 30.70 |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 15 | Western Bulldogs | 7.20 |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jun 15 | Hawthorn Hawks | -13.70 |
| 4 | Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 15 | Sydney Swans | -9.10 |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Collingwood | Jun 16 | Collingwood | -41.90 |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 16 | GWS Giants | 14.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »