June 4, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.06 7.24 0.80
Toulon 5.87 3.11 2.80
Stade Rochelais 5.61 6.40 -0.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.80 4.07 0.70
Racing 92 3.07 3.42 -0.40
Stade Francais 1.65 2.62 -1.00
Section Paloise 1.14 -0.44 1.60
Montpellier -0.04 2.09 -2.10
Clermont -0.49 1.47 -2.00
Lyon -0.62 2.97 -3.60
Castres Olympique -0.69 -0.39 -0.30
USA Perpignan -0.90 -3.64 2.70
Bayonne -1.27 -1.32 0.00
US Oyonnax -8.58 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 130 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Jun 02 27 – 18 3.60 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Lyon Jun 02 41 – 26 6.20 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Jun 02 24 – 15 8.40 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 02 31 – 31 9.90 FALSE
5 Toulon vs. Clermont Jun 02 52 – 10 11.00 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Bayonne Jun 02 27 – 20 -1.70 FALSE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 02 37 – 30 0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Jun 09 Bayonne 5.90
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. US Oyonnax Jun 09 Bordeaux Begles 19.90
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Jun 09 Clermont 6.10
4 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 09 Stade Toulousain -2.20
5 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Jun 09 Section Paloise 8.50
6 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Jun 09 Stade Francais 2.30
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Jun 09 Stade Rochelais 9.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »