June 4, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.75 12.20 3.60
Chiefs 13.79 13.21 0.60
Hurricanes 13.34 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 12.76 18.86 -6.10
Brumbies 7.21 6.52 0.70
Reds 3.02 0.07 2.90
Highlanders -0.83 1.17 -2.00
Waratahs -4.20 -1.90 -2.30
Rebels -5.90 -4.59 -1.30
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.05 -9.21 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.62 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika May 31 43 – 10 26.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Reds May 31 26 – 27 -4.70 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Jun 01 40 – 19 -0.80 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 01 41 – 14 16.20 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 01 31 – 17 4.10 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Jun 01 19 – 24 -11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Jun 07 Hurricanes 24.20
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 07 Chiefs 15.80
3 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Jun 08 Blues 28.80
4 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 08 Brumbies 13.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »