AFL Predictions for Week 14
Team Ratings for Week 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 22.73 | 9.23 | 13.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.76 | 17.47 | -3.70 |
| Carlton Blues | 12.17 | 9.73 | 2.40 |
| Western Bulldogs | 11.01 | 6.04 | 5.00 |
| GWS Giants | 10.96 | 12.60 | -1.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 9.77 | 0.40 | 9.40 |
| Collingwood | 9.59 | 14.87 | -5.30 |
| Geelong Cats | 8.62 | 10.50 | -1.90 |
| Adelaide Crows | 8.28 | 9.56 | -1.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | 8.22 | 13.91 | -5.70 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 3.49 | 8.83 | -5.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -0.79 | -4.60 | 3.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | -4.69 | -0.63 | -4.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -6.51 | -17.70 | 11.20 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -7.01 | -11.08 | 4.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -22.03 | -6.13 | -15.90 |
| West Coast Eagles | -32.74 | -43.10 | 10.40 |
| North Melbourne | -40.67 | -25.73 | -14.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 106 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues | May 30 | 71 – 107 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Western Bulldogs | May 31 | 82 – 100 | -8.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 01 | 107 – 80 | -11.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 01 | 68 – 82 | -20.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers | Jun 01 | 99 – 69 | 42.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 02 | 49 – 141 | 9.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 02 | 91 – 80 | 15.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 14
Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers | Jun 06 | Adelaide Crows | 39.30 |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 07 | Western Bulldogs | 6.30 |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants | Jun 08 | GWS Giants | -9.00 |
| 4 | West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne | Jun 08 | West Coast Eagles | 16.90 |
| 5 | St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 08 | St Kilda Saints | 5.10 |
| 6 | Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 09 | Sydney Swans | 23.10 |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 09 | Carlton Blues | -18.70 |
| 8 | Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 10 | Collingwood | 1.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »