Posts from May 2024 (18)

May 13, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.31 7.24 1.10
Stade Rochelais 5.58 6.40 -0.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.19 4.07 1.10
Toulon 4.80 3.11 1.70
Racing 92 3.19 3.42 -0.20
Stade Francais 1.88 2.62 -0.70
Section Paloise 0.71 -0.44 1.10
Clermont -0.01 1.47 -1.50
Montpellier -0.24 2.09 -2.30
Lyon -0.33 2.97 -3.30
Castres Olympique -0.51 -0.39 -0.10
Bayonne -0.62 -1.32 0.70
USA Perpignan -1.46 -3.64 2.20
US Oyonnax -8.87 -10.00 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 161 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais May 12 34 – 14 5.10 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier May 12 27 – 26 6.80 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 12 28 – 37 11.60 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. US Oyonnax May 12 39 – 17 15.40 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Lyon May 12 30 – 24 12.30 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont May 12 28 – 35 5.90 FALSE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais May 13 49 – 18 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan May 19 Bayonne 7.30
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique May 19 Clermont 7.00
3 Lyon vs. Racing 92 May 19 Lyon 3.00
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain May 19 Stade Toulousain -2.00
5 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles May 19 Stade Francais 3.20
6 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise May 19 Stade Rochelais 11.40
7 US Oyonnax vs. Toulon May 19 Toulon -7.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 15.11 13.21 1.90
Blues 14.85 12.20 2.70
Hurricanes 13.30 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 12.51 18.86 -6.30
Brumbies 6.45 6.52 -0.10
Reds 2.75 0.07 2.70
Highlanders -0.64 1.17 -1.80
Waratahs -2.97 -1.90 -1.10
Rebels -4.75 -4.59 -0.20
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.67 -9.21 0.50
Moana Pasifika -12.67 -10.80 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs May 10 7 – 43 -23.70 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels May 10 26 – 22 11.20 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 31 – 27 4.60 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 11 32 – 29 -11.30 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 11 21 – 29 -6.20 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 11 48 – 10 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 17 Hurricanes 29.00
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 17 Chiefs -14.90
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds May 18 Reds -8.40
4 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 18 Crusaders -1.10
5 Blues vs. Highlanders May 18 Blues 18.50
6 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 18 Waratahs -0.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.60 6.82 4.80
Northampton Saints 10.14 2.66 7.50
Bristol 7.65 1.00 6.70
Bath 2.99 -1.26 4.30
Sale Sharks 2.72 6.46 -3.70
Exeter Chiefs 2.30 -0.89 3.20
Leicester Tigers 2.21 6.13 -3.90
Harlequins -0.80 1.93 -2.70
Gloucester -11.48 -1.45 -10.00
Newcastle Falcons -16.58 -10.63 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath May 11 17 – 28 -14.20 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 11 31 – 22 5.90 TRUE
3 Bristol vs. Saracens May 12 20 – 41 6.70 FALSE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins May 12 58 – 26 4.40 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 12 90 – 0 15.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints May 19 Northampton Saints -1.10
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 Gloucester 11.10
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol May 19 Bristol -2.40
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 Leicester Tigers 5.90
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks May 19 Saracens 14.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.73 14.73 -3.00
Roosters 8.13 3.08 5.00
Broncos 8.11 9.07 -1.00
Sharks 6.36 2.94 3.40
Storm 5.50 6.15 -0.70
Sea Eagles 0.75 -0.48 1.20
Knights -0.69 1.84 -2.50
Cowboys -0.70 2.47 -3.20
Warriors -1.01 -0.07 -0.90
Dolphins -2.19 -7.09 4.90
Raiders -3.79 -4.31 0.50
Eels -4.37 0.14 -4.50
Bulldogs -5.91 -13.35 7.40
Dragons -6.99 -6.93 -0.10
Rabbitohs -7.92 0.87 -8.80
Titans -8.25 -7.89 -0.40
Wests Tigers -10.76 -13.15 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Sea Eagles May 09 30 – 24 -0.80 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs May 10 16 – 10 22.70 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos May 10 14 – 30 -8.50 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 11 14 – 20 -10.70 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs May 11 28 – 14 2.50 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Sharks May 11 18 – 25 3.40 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Warriors May 12 38 – 18 15.60 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys May 12 20 – 18 -5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 17 Raiders 2.10
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 17 Broncos -10.40
3 Titans vs. Knights May 18 Knights -7.60
4 Sharks vs. Roosters May 18 Roosters -1.80
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 18 Cowboys -7.20
6 Warriors vs. Panthers May 19 Panthers -12.70
7 Storm vs. Eels May 19 Storm 9.90
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins May 19 Dolphins -11.60

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 19.07 9.23 9.80
Melbourne Demons 16.66 13.91 2.80
Geelong Cats 16.42 10.50 5.90
Brisbane Lions 12.06 17.47 -5.40
GWS Giants 11.73 12.60 -0.90
Collingwood 11.40 14.87 -3.50
Carlton Blues 10.34 9.73 0.60
Western Bulldogs 8.92 6.04 2.90
Adelaide Crows 6.45 9.56 -3.10
Port Adelaide Power 6.33 8.83 -2.50
Fremantle Dockers 3.00 0.40 2.60
St Kilda Saints -0.86 -0.63 -0.20
Gold Coast Suns -3.59 -4.60 1.00
Essendon Bombers -7.47 -17.70 10.20
Hawthorn Hawks -14.12 -11.08 -3.00
Richmond Tigers -19.51 -6.13 -13.40
West Coast Eagles -34.72 -43.10 8.40
North Melbourne -37.95 -25.73 -12.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 81 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons May 09 77 – 76 -8.40 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power May 10 95 – 101 22.90 FALSE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans May 10 39 – 87 -1.30 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. St Kilda Saints May 11 58 – 53 -6.90 FALSE
5 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants May 11 82 – 62 -14.70 FALSE
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. North Melbourne May 11 120 – 52 29.50 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Western Bulldogs May 11 42 – 133 -10.20 TRUE
8 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles May 12 103 – 37 52.10 TRUE
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions May 12 90 – 90 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats May 16 Geelong Cats -20.00
2 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues May 17 Sydney Swans 17.70
3 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows May 18 Collingwood 14.00
4 GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs May 18 GWS Giants 11.80
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Richmond Tigers May 18 Brisbane Lions 40.60
6 St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers May 18 St Kilda Saints 5.10
7 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne May 19 Essendon Bombers 30.50
8 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 19 Port Adelaide Power 29.40
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons May 19 Melbourne Demons -42.40
10 Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans May 23 Sydney Swans -1.10

 

May 7, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.89 12.20 2.70
Chiefs 14.59 13.21 1.40
Hurricanes 13.25 9.73 3.50
Crusaders 13.10 18.86 -5.80
Brumbies 6.32 6.52 -0.20
Reds 3.09 0.07 3.00
Highlanders -1.23 1.17 -2.40
Waratahs -2.84 -1.90 -0.90
Rebels -5.09 -4.59 -0.50
Western Force -7.36 -6.15 -1.20
Fijian Drua -7.46 -9.21 1.80
Moana Pasifika -12.15 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs May 03 41 – 12 20.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Blues May 03 11 – 38 -13.90 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders May 04 17 – 28 -7.40 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Reds May 04 28 – 33 16.60 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Western Force May 04 56 – 7 25.20 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua May 04 28 – 20 17.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs May 10 Chiefs -23.70
2 Reds vs. Rebels May 10 Reds 11.20
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 Blues 4.60
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 11 Crusaders -11.30
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 11 Brumbies -6.20
6 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 11 Western Force 3.10

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.74 14.73 -2.00
Roosters 7.84 3.08 4.80
Broncos 7.64 9.07 -1.40
Storm 6.15 6.15 -0.00
Sharks 5.71 2.94 2.80
Sea Eagles 1.18 -0.48 1.70
Cowboys -0.22 2.47 -2.70
Knights -0.38 1.84 -2.20
Warriors -0.72 -0.07 -0.60
Dolphins -2.63 -7.09 4.50
Raiders -3.79 -4.31 0.50
Eels -3.90 0.14 -4.00
Bulldogs -6.92 -13.35 6.40
Rabbitohs -7.20 0.87 -8.10
Dragons -7.71 -6.93 -0.80
Titans -8.73 -7.89 -0.80
Wests Tigers -11.06 -13.15 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers May 02 12 – 42 -15.10 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders May 03 24 – 26 9.40 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 03 18 – 40 6.10 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers May 04 22 – 14 7.00 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Storm May 04 20 – 22 -13.30 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Dolphins May 04 26 – 28 6.50 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Warriors May 05 14 – 8 7.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Dragons May 05 20 – 10 17.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Sea Eagles May 09 Sea Eagles -0.80
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs May 10 Panthers 22.70
3 Eels vs. Broncos May 10 Broncos -8.50
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 11 Knights -10.70
5 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs May 11 Dragons 2.50
6 Storm vs. Sharks May 11 Storm 3.40
7 Roosters vs. Warriors May 12 Roosters 15.60
8 Titans vs. Cowboys May 12 Cowboys -5.50

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 18.35 10.50 7.90
Melbourne Demons 17.70 13.91 3.80
Sydney Swans 16.18 9.23 7.00
GWS Giants 13.97 12.60 1.40
Brisbane Lions 11.59 17.47 -5.90
Collingwood 9.87 14.87 -5.00
Carlton Blues 9.30 9.73 -0.40
Adelaide Crows 6.93 9.56 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 5.89 0.40 5.50
Port Adelaide Power 4.41 8.83 -4.40
Western Bulldogs 4.32 6.04 -1.70
St Kilda Saints 0.44 -0.63 1.10
Gold Coast Suns -6.04 -4.60 -1.40
Essendon Bombers -9.71 -17.70 8.00
Richmond Tigers -14.92 -6.13 -8.80
Hawthorn Hawks -15.42 -11.08 -4.30
West Coast Eagles -33.19 -43.10 9.90
North Melbourne -35.50 -25.73 -9.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power May 02 78 – 48 -1.60 FALSE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood May 03 79 – 85 1.00 FALSE
3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants May 04 98 – 69 8.30 TRUE
4 St Kilda Saints vs. North Melbourne May 04 103 – 65 35.40 TRUE
5 Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats May 04 74 – 66 8.40 TRUE
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 04 71 – 77 -16.90 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers May 05 49 – 103 -5.90 TRUE
8 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 05 91 – 98 33.90 FALSE
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns May 05 79 – 45 24.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons May 09 Melbourne Demons -8.40
2 Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power May 10 Geelong Cats 22.90
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans May 10 Sydney Swans -1.30
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. St Kilda Saints May 11 St Kilda Saints -6.90
5 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants May 11 GWS Giants -14.70
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. North Melbourne May 11 Gold Coast Suns 29.50
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Western Bulldogs May 11 Western Bulldogs -10.20
8 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles May 12 Collingwood 52.10
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions May 12 Adelaide Crows 4.30

 

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