May 27, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.22 14.73 -1.50
Roosters 8.72 3.08 5.60
Storm 6.30 6.15 0.10
Broncos 6.29 9.07 -2.80
Sharks 4.58 2.94 1.60
Sea Eagles 1.87 -0.48 2.40
Warriors -0.43 -0.07 -0.40
Cowboys -0.72 2.47 -3.20
Knights -0.92 1.84 -2.80
Dolphins -1.84 -7.09 5.30
Bulldogs -4.38 -13.35 9.00
Raiders -4.85 -4.31 -0.50
Eels -6.62 0.14 -6.80
Titans -6.78 -7.89 1.10
Rabbitohs -6.91 0.87 -7.80
Dragons -8.66 -6.93 -1.70
Wests Tigers -10.86 -13.15 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 23 44 – 12 4.00 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers May 24 42 – 28 13.00 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm May 24 26 – 20 -2.50 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Roosters May 25 16 – 44 -8.20 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Panthers May 25 0 – 42 -0.90 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 25 42 – 26 0.90 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Titans May 26 34 – 36 18.50 FALSE
8 Warriors vs. Dolphins May 26 24 – 20 9.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Sharks May 30 Sharks -8.20
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs May 31 Knights 6.50
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 01 Panthers 24.90
4 Dolphins vs. Raiders Jun 01 Dolphins 6.00
5 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jun 02 Roosters 12.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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