AFL Predictions for Week 13
Team Ratings for Week 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 22.73 | 9.23 | 13.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | 13.81 | 13.91 | -0.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.76 | 17.47 | -3.70 |
| GWS Giants | 10.96 | 12.60 | -1.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 10.71 | 9.56 | 1.10 |
| Collingwood | 10.66 | 14.87 | -4.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 9.98 | 10.50 | -0.50 |
| Western Bulldogs | 9.95 | 6.04 | 3.90 |
| Carlton Blues | 9.55 | 9.73 | -0.20 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 6.11 | 8.83 | -2.70 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 4.18 | 0.40 | 3.80 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -0.27 | -4.60 | 4.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.98 | -0.63 | -3.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -7.04 | -17.70 | 10.70 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -9.44 | -11.08 | 1.60 |
| Richmond Tigers | -23.39 | -6.13 | -17.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.46 | -43.10 | 9.60 |
| North Melbourne | -40.67 | -25.73 | -14.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 99 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans | May 23 | 88 – 102 | -0.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood | May 24 | 75 – 75 | 3.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 25 | 102 – 73 | 16.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 25 | 48 – 107 | -34.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants | May 25 | 74 – 78 | 11.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers | May 25 | 74 – 86 | -17.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions | May 26 | 100 – 75 | -19.80 | FALSE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints | May 26 | 100 – 62 | 23.60 | TRUE |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles | May 26 | 137 – 38 | 46.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 13
Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues | May 30 | Port Adelaide Power | 5.60 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Western Bulldogs | May 31 | Western Bulldogs | -8.30 |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 01 | Adelaide Crows | -11.20 |
| 4 | West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 01 | St Kilda Saints | -20.50 |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers | Jun 01 | Geelong Cats | 42.40 |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 02 | Melbourne Demons | 9.60 |
| 7 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 02 | Gold Coast Suns | 15.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »