Top 14 Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.56 | 7.24 | 1.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.15 | 4.07 | 1.10 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.11 | 6.40 | -1.30 |
| Toulon | 4.94 | 3.11 | 1.80 |
| Racing 92 | 3.04 | 3.42 | -0.40 |
| Stade Francais | 1.92 | 2.62 | -0.70 |
| Section Paloise | 1.18 | -0.44 | 1.60 |
| Clermont | 0.44 | 1.47 | -1.00 |
| Lyon | -0.18 | 2.97 | -3.10 |
| Montpellier | -0.48 | 2.09 | -2.60 |
| Bayonne | -0.84 | -1.32 | 0.50 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.96 | -0.39 | -0.60 |
| USA Perpignan | -1.25 | -3.64 | 2.40 |
| US Oyonnax | -9.01 | -10.00 | 1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 168 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan | May 19 | 23 – 20 | 7.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Castres Olympique | May 19 | 36 – 20 | 7.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Racing 92 | May 19 | 20 – 14 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | May 19 | 22 – 29 | -2.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise | May 19 | 25 – 23 | 11.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | US Oyonnax vs. Toulon | May 19 | 17 – 27 | -7.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles | May 20 | 22 – 18 | 3.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais | Jun 02 | Castres Olympique | 3.60 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Lyon | Jun 02 | Montpellier | 6.20 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise | Jun 02 | Racing 92 | 8.40 |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais | Jun 02 | Stade Toulousain | 9.90 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Clermont | Jun 02 | Toulon | 11.00 |
| 6 | US Oyonnax vs. Bayonne | Jun 02 | Bayonne | -1.70 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles | Jun 02 | USA Perpignan | 0.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »