May 21, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 9.58 1.00 8.60
Saracens 9.49 6.82 2.70
Northampton Saints 7.43 2.66 4.80
Bath 5.69 -1.26 7.00
Sale Sharks 4.84 6.46 -1.60
Leicester Tigers 3.27 6.13 -2.90
Exeter Chiefs 1.23 -0.89 2.10
Harlequins -2.73 1.93 -4.70
Gloucester -9.04 -1.45 -7.60
Newcastle Falcons -19.02 -10.63 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints May 19 43 – 12 -1.10 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 54 – 14 11.10 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol May 19 28 – 53 -2.40 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 40 – 22 5.90 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks May 19 10 – 20 14.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jun 01 Northampton Saints 3.90
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Jun 02 Bath 6.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »