AFL Predictions for Week 12
Team Ratings for Week 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 21.29 | 9.23 | 12.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 16.55 | 17.47 | -0.90 |
| Melbourne Demons | 12.23 | 13.91 | -1.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 11.67 | 10.50 | 1.20 |
| Western Bulldogs | 11.39 | 6.04 | 5.40 |
| Collingwood | 10.31 | 14.87 | -4.60 |
| GWS Giants | 9.26 | 12.60 | -3.30 |
| Carlton Blues | 8.12 | 9.73 | -1.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 7.54 | 9.56 | -2.00 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 4.53 | 0.40 | 4.10 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 4.44 | 8.83 | -4.40 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 1.17 | -4.60 | 5.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | -2.39 | -0.63 | -1.80 |
| Essendon Bombers | -6.43 | -17.70 | 11.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -12.22 | -11.08 | -1.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -24.00 | -6.13 | -17.90 |
| West Coast Eagles | -30.29 | -43.10 | 12.80 |
| North Melbourne | -39.00 | -25.73 | -13.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 90 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats | May 16 | 164 – 100 | -20.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues | May 17 | 117 – 65 | 17.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows | May 18 | 78 – 74 | 14.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs | May 18 | 43 – 70 | 11.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Brisbane Lions vs. Richmond Tigers | May 18 | 163 – 44 | 40.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 18 | 55 – 72 | 5.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne | May 19 | 106 – 66 | 30.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 19 | 80 – 79 | 29.40 | TRUE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons | May 19 | 105 – 70 | -42.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 12
Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans | May 23 | Sydney Swans | -0.90 |
| 2 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood | May 24 | Fremantle Dockers | 3.20 |
| 3 | Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 25 | Carlton Blues | 16.00 |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 25 | Port Adelaide Power | -34.40 |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants | May 25 | Geelong Cats | 11.40 |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers | May 25 | Essendon Bombers | -17.60 |
| 7 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions | May 26 | Brisbane Lions | -19.80 |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints | May 26 | Melbourne Demons | 23.60 |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles | May 26 | Adelaide Crows | 46.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »