Top 14 Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.31 | 7.24 | 1.10 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.58 | 6.40 | -0.80 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.19 | 4.07 | 1.10 |
| Toulon | 4.80 | 3.11 | 1.70 |
| Racing 92 | 3.19 | 3.42 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais | 1.88 | 2.62 | -0.70 |
| Section Paloise | 0.71 | -0.44 | 1.10 |
| Clermont | -0.01 | 1.47 | -1.50 |
| Montpellier | -0.24 | 2.09 | -2.30 |
| Lyon | -0.33 | 2.97 | -3.30 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.51 | -0.39 | -0.10 |
| Bayonne | -0.62 | -1.32 | 0.70 |
| USA Perpignan | -1.46 | -3.64 | 2.20 |
| US Oyonnax | -8.87 | -10.00 | 1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 161 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais | May 12 | 34 – 14 | 5.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | May 12 | 27 – 26 | 6.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Bayonne | May 12 | 28 – 37 | 11.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. US Oyonnax | May 12 | 39 – 17 | 15.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Lyon | May 12 | 30 – 24 | 12.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Clermont | May 12 | 28 – 35 | 5.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais | May 13 | 49 – 18 | 11.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan | May 19 | Bayonne | 7.30 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Castres Olympique | May 19 | Clermont | 7.00 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Racing 92 | May 19 | Lyon | 3.00 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | May 19 | Stade Toulousain | -2.00 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles | May 19 | Stade Francais | 3.20 |
| 6 | Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise | May 19 | Stade Rochelais | 11.40 |
| 7 | US Oyonnax vs. Toulon | May 19 | Toulon | -7.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »