May 13, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 15.11 13.21 1.90
Blues 14.85 12.20 2.70
Hurricanes 13.30 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 12.51 18.86 -6.30
Brumbies 6.45 6.52 -0.10
Reds 2.75 0.07 2.70
Highlanders -0.64 1.17 -1.80
Waratahs -2.97 -1.90 -1.10
Rebels -4.75 -4.59 -0.20
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.67 -9.21 0.50
Moana Pasifika -12.67 -10.80 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs May 10 7 – 43 -23.70 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels May 10 26 – 22 11.20 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 31 – 27 4.60 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 11 32 – 29 -11.30 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 11 21 – 29 -6.20 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 11 48 – 10 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 17 Hurricanes 29.00
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 17 Chiefs -14.90
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds May 18 Reds -8.40
4 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 18 Crusaders -1.10
5 Blues vs. Highlanders May 18 Blues 18.50
6 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 18 Waratahs -0.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »