Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 11.60 | 6.82 | 4.80 |
| Northampton Saints | 10.14 | 2.66 | 7.50 |
| Bristol | 7.65 | 1.00 | 6.70 |
| Bath | 2.99 | -1.26 | 4.30 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.72 | 6.46 | -3.70 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 2.30 | -0.89 | 3.20 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.21 | 6.13 | -3.90 |
| Harlequins | -0.80 | 1.93 | -2.70 |
| Gloucester | -11.48 | -1.45 | -10.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -16.58 | -10.63 | -5.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 85 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath | May 11 | 17 – 28 | -14.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | May 11 | 31 – 22 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bristol vs. Saracens | May 12 | 20 – 41 | 6.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | May 12 | 58 – 26 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester | May 12 | 90 – 0 | 15.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Northampton Saints | May 19 | Northampton Saints | -1.10 |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons | May 19 | Gloucester | 11.10 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Bristol | May 19 | Bristol | -2.40 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs | May 19 | Leicester Tigers | 5.90 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Sale Sharks | May 19 | Saracens | 14.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »