NRL Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 11.73 | 14.73 | -3.00 |
| Roosters | 8.13 | 3.08 | 5.00 |
| Broncos | 8.11 | 9.07 | -1.00 |
| Sharks | 6.36 | 2.94 | 3.40 |
| Storm | 5.50 | 6.15 | -0.70 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.75 | -0.48 | 1.20 |
| Knights | -0.69 | 1.84 | -2.50 |
| Cowboys | -0.70 | 2.47 | -3.20 |
| Warriors | -1.01 | -0.07 | -0.90 |
| Dolphins | -2.19 | -7.09 | 4.90 |
| Raiders | -3.79 | -4.31 | 0.50 |
| Eels | -4.37 | 0.14 | -4.50 |
| Bulldogs | -5.91 | -13.35 | 7.40 |
| Dragons | -6.99 | -6.93 | -0.10 |
| Rabbitohs | -7.92 | 0.87 | -8.80 |
| Titans | -8.25 | -7.89 | -0.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.76 | -13.15 | 2.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dolphins vs. Sea Eagles | May 09 | 30 – 24 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | May 10 | 16 – 10 | 22.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Broncos | May 10 | 14 – 30 | -8.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | May 11 | 14 – 20 | -10.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | May 11 | 28 – 14 | 2.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Sharks | May 11 | 18 – 25 | 3.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Warriors | May 12 | 38 – 18 | 15.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Cowboys | May 12 | 20 – 18 | -5.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | May 17 | Raiders | 2.10 |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | May 17 | Broncos | -10.40 |
| 3 | Titans vs. Knights | May 18 | Knights | -7.60 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Roosters | May 18 | Roosters | -1.80 |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | May 18 | Cowboys | -7.20 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Panthers | May 19 | Panthers | -12.70 |
| 7 | Storm vs. Eels | May 19 | Storm | 9.90 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins | May 19 | Dolphins | -11.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hey did you use a different method for this week since there’s essentially no home games as it’s magic round ?
6 months ago
Yes. No home ground advantage except for Broncos and Dolphins which have Suncorp as their home ground. They get the advantage even though they are the second named team.
6 months ago