AFL Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 19.07 | 9.23 | 9.80 |
| Melbourne Demons | 16.66 | 13.91 | 2.80 |
| Geelong Cats | 16.42 | 10.50 | 5.90 |
| Brisbane Lions | 12.06 | 17.47 | -5.40 |
| GWS Giants | 11.73 | 12.60 | -0.90 |
| Collingwood | 11.40 | 14.87 | -3.50 |
| Carlton Blues | 10.34 | 9.73 | 0.60 |
| Western Bulldogs | 8.92 | 6.04 | 2.90 |
| Adelaide Crows | 6.45 | 9.56 | -3.10 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 6.33 | 8.83 | -2.50 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 3.00 | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.86 | -0.63 | -0.20 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -3.59 | -4.60 | 1.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -7.47 | -17.70 | 10.20 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -14.12 | -11.08 | -3.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -19.51 | -6.13 | -13.40 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.72 | -43.10 | 8.40 |
| North Melbourne | -37.95 | -25.73 | -12.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 81 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons | May 09 | 77 – 76 | -8.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 10 | 95 – 101 | 22.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans | May 10 | 39 – 87 | -1.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. St Kilda Saints | May 11 | 58 – 53 | -6.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants | May 11 | 82 – 62 | -14.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Gold Coast Suns vs. North Melbourne | May 11 | 120 – 52 | 29.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Western Bulldogs | May 11 | 42 – 133 | -10.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles | May 12 | 103 – 37 | 52.10 | TRUE |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions | May 12 | 90 – 90 | 4.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats | May 16 | Geelong Cats | -20.00 |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues | May 17 | Sydney Swans | 17.70 |
| 3 | Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows | May 18 | Collingwood | 14.00 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs | May 18 | GWS Giants | 11.80 |
| 5 | Brisbane Lions vs. Richmond Tigers | May 18 | Brisbane Lions | 40.60 |
| 6 | St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 18 | St Kilda Saints | 5.10 |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne | May 19 | Essendon Bombers | 30.50 |
| 8 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 19 | Port Adelaide Power | 29.40 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons | May 19 | Melbourne Demons | -42.40 |
| 10 | Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans | May 23 | Sydney Swans | -1.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »