AFL Predictions for Week 10
Team Ratings for Week 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 18.35 | 10.50 | 7.90 |
| Melbourne Demons | 17.70 | 13.91 | 3.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 16.18 | 9.23 | 7.00 |
| GWS Giants | 13.97 | 12.60 | 1.40 |
| Brisbane Lions | 11.59 | 17.47 | -5.90 |
| Collingwood | 9.87 | 14.87 | -5.00 |
| Carlton Blues | 9.30 | 9.73 | -0.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 6.93 | 9.56 | -2.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.89 | 0.40 | 5.50 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 4.41 | 8.83 | -4.40 |
| Western Bulldogs | 4.32 | 6.04 | -1.70 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.44 | -0.63 | 1.10 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -6.04 | -4.60 | -1.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -9.71 | -17.70 | 8.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -14.92 | -6.13 | -8.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -15.42 | -11.08 | -4.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.19 | -43.10 | 9.90 |
| North Melbourne | -35.50 | -25.73 | -9.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 72 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 02 | 78 – 48 | -1.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood | May 03 | 79 – 85 | 1.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants | May 04 | 98 – 69 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | St Kilda Saints vs. North Melbourne | May 04 | 103 – 65 | 35.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats | May 04 | 74 – 66 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers | May 04 | 71 – 77 | -16.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 05 | 49 – 103 | -5.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 05 | 91 – 98 | 33.90 | FALSE |
| 9 | Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 05 | 79 – 45 | 24.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 10
Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons | May 09 | Melbourne Demons | -8.40 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 10 | Geelong Cats | 22.90 |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans | May 10 | Sydney Swans | -1.30 |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. St Kilda Saints | May 11 | St Kilda Saints | -6.90 |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants | May 11 | GWS Giants | -14.70 |
| 6 | Gold Coast Suns vs. North Melbourne | May 11 | Gold Coast Suns | 29.50 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Western Bulldogs | May 11 | Western Bulldogs | -10.20 |
| 8 | Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles | May 12 | Collingwood | 52.10 |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions | May 12 | Adelaide Crows | 4.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »