Posts from May 2024 (18)

May 27, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.31 12.20 3.10
Chiefs 14.23 13.21 1.00
Hurricanes 12.87 9.73 3.10
Crusaders 12.30 18.86 -6.60
Brumbies 7.65 6.52 1.10
Reds 3.28 0.07 3.20
Highlanders -0.37 1.17 -1.50
Waratahs -4.46 -1.90 -2.60
Rebels -5.07 -4.59 -0.50
Western Force -6.60 -6.15 -0.50
Fijian Drua -8.88 -9.21 0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.16 -10.80 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 24 17 – 20 5.10 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 24 53 – 17 14.10 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs May 25 27 – 12 -3.10 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 25 29 – 27 -0.30 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Western Force May 25 59 – 13 10.40 TRUE
6 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua May 26 39 – 3 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika May 31 Crusaders 26.50
2 Waratahs vs. Reds May 31 Reds -4.70
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Jun 01 Rebels -0.80
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 01 Hurricanes 16.20
5 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 01 Blues 4.10
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Jun 01 Brumbies -11.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.22 14.73 -1.50
Roosters 8.72 3.08 5.60
Storm 6.30 6.15 0.10
Broncos 6.29 9.07 -2.80
Sharks 4.58 2.94 1.60
Sea Eagles 1.87 -0.48 2.40
Warriors -0.43 -0.07 -0.40
Cowboys -0.72 2.47 -3.20
Knights -0.92 1.84 -2.80
Dolphins -1.84 -7.09 5.30
Bulldogs -4.38 -13.35 9.00
Raiders -4.85 -4.31 -0.50
Eels -6.62 0.14 -6.80
Titans -6.78 -7.89 1.10
Rabbitohs -6.91 0.87 -7.80
Dragons -8.66 -6.93 -1.70
Wests Tigers -10.86 -13.15 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 23 44 – 12 4.00 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers May 24 42 – 28 13.00 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm May 24 26 – 20 -2.50 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Roosters May 25 16 – 44 -8.20 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Panthers May 25 0 – 42 -0.90 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 25 42 – 26 0.90 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Titans May 26 34 – 36 18.50 FALSE
8 Warriors vs. Dolphins May 26 24 – 20 9.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Sharks May 30 Sharks -8.20
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs May 31 Knights 6.50
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 01 Panthers 24.90
4 Dolphins vs. Raiders Jun 01 Dolphins 6.00
5 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jun 02 Roosters 12.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 22.73 9.23 13.50
Melbourne Demons 13.81 13.91 -0.10
Brisbane Lions 13.76 17.47 -3.70
GWS Giants 10.96 12.60 -1.60
Adelaide Crows 10.71 9.56 1.10
Collingwood 10.66 14.87 -4.20
Geelong Cats 9.98 10.50 -0.50
Western Bulldogs 9.95 6.04 3.90
Carlton Blues 9.55 9.73 -0.20
Port Adelaide Power 6.11 8.83 -2.70
Fremantle Dockers 4.18 0.40 3.80
Gold Coast Suns -0.27 -4.60 4.30
St Kilda Saints -3.98 -0.63 -3.40
Essendon Bombers -7.04 -17.70 10.70
Hawthorn Hawks -9.44 -11.08 1.60
Richmond Tigers -23.39 -6.13 -17.30
West Coast Eagles -33.46 -43.10 9.60
North Melbourne -40.67 -25.73 -14.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans May 23 88 – 102 -0.90 TRUE
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood May 24 75 – 75 3.20 FALSE
3 Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns May 25 102 – 73 16.00 TRUE
4 North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power May 25 48 – 107 -34.40 TRUE
5 Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants May 25 74 – 78 11.40 FALSE
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers May 25 74 – 86 -17.60 TRUE
7 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions May 26 100 – 75 -19.80 FALSE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints May 26 100 – 62 23.60 TRUE
9 Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles May 26 137 – 38 46.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues May 30 Port Adelaide Power 5.60
2 Collingwood vs. Western Bulldogs May 31 Western Bulldogs -8.30
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 01 Adelaide Crows -11.20
4 West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 01 St Kilda Saints -20.50
5 Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 01 Geelong Cats 42.40
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 02 Melbourne Demons 9.60
7 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 02 Gold Coast Suns 15.80

 

May 21, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18

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Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 11.60 10.54 1.10
Bulls 10.82 9.00 1.80
Leinster 10.69 10.73 -0.00
Stormers 7.83 8.93 -1.10
Glasgow 7.16 4.19 3.00
Lions 6.35 -4.26 10.60
Ulster 3.02 7.80 -4.80
Edinburgh 1.20 -2.26 3.50
Connacht -0.08 3.17 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -2.06 -5.16 3.10
Benetton -2.58 -5.12 2.50
Sharks -3.32 0.85 -4.20
Ospreys -4.64 -7.79 3.20
Scarlets -11.96 -2.23 -9.70
Dragons -14.82 -8.14 -6.70
Zebre -19.21 -20.25 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Munster May 18 26 – 29 -7.20 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Scarlets May 18 18 – 32 -1.30 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Benetton May 19 56 – 35 16.50 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons May 19 26 – 13 12.00 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Glasgow May 19 44 – 21 -0.20 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Stormers May 19 12 – 16 -3.90 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby May 19 14 – 36 6.90 FALSE
8 Ulster vs. Leinster May 19 23 – 21 -7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jun 01 Glasgow 30.40
2 Leinster vs. Connacht Jun 01 Leinster 12.80
3 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 01 Stormers 3.50
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jun 02 Benetton 0.20
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jun 02 Scarlets 4.90
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Jun 02 Bulls -12.10
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jun 02 Cardiff Rugby 4.60
8 Munster vs. Ulster Jun 02 Munster 10.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.56 7.24 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.15 4.07 1.10
Stade Rochelais 5.11 6.40 -1.30
Toulon 4.94 3.11 1.80
Racing 92 3.04 3.42 -0.40
Stade Francais 1.92 2.62 -0.70
Section Paloise 1.18 -0.44 1.60
Clermont 0.44 1.47 -1.00
Lyon -0.18 2.97 -3.10
Montpellier -0.48 2.09 -2.60
Bayonne -0.84 -1.32 0.50
Castres Olympique -0.96 -0.39 -0.60
USA Perpignan -1.25 -3.64 2.40
US Oyonnax -9.01 -10.00 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan May 19 23 – 20 7.30 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique May 19 36 – 20 7.00 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Racing 92 May 19 20 – 14 3.00 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain May 19 22 – 29 -2.00 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise May 19 25 – 23 11.40 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Toulon May 19 17 – 27 -7.20 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles May 20 22 – 18 3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Jun 02 Castres Olympique 3.60
2 Montpellier vs. Lyon Jun 02 Montpellier 6.20
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Jun 02 Racing 92 8.40
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 02 Stade Toulousain 9.90
5 Toulon vs. Clermont Jun 02 Toulon 11.00
6 US Oyonnax vs. Bayonne Jun 02 Bayonne -1.70
7 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 02 USA Perpignan 0.10

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.47 12.20 3.30
Chiefs 14.60 13.21 1.40
Hurricanes 12.50 9.73 2.80
Crusaders 12.14 18.86 -6.70
Brumbies 6.82 6.52 0.30
Reds 2.06 0.07 2.00
Highlanders -1.26 1.17 -2.40
Waratahs -3.75 -1.90 -1.80
Rebels -4.24 -4.59 0.40
Western Force -5.38 -6.15 0.80
Fijian Drua -7.98 -9.21 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.87 -10.80 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 17 32 – 24 29.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 17 23 – 26 -14.90 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds May 18 28 – 19 -8.40 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 18 31 – 24 -1.10 FALSE
5 Blues vs. Highlanders May 18 47 – 13 18.50 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 18 27 – 7 -0.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 24 Chiefs 5.10
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 24 Brumbies 14.10
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs May 25 Waratahs -3.10
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 25 Blues -0.30
5 Reds vs. Western Force May 25 Reds 10.40
6 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua May 26 Highlanders 11.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 9.58 1.00 8.60
Saracens 9.49 6.82 2.70
Northampton Saints 7.43 2.66 4.80
Bath 5.69 -1.26 7.00
Sale Sharks 4.84 6.46 -1.60
Leicester Tigers 3.27 6.13 -2.90
Exeter Chiefs 1.23 -0.89 2.10
Harlequins -2.73 1.93 -4.70
Gloucester -9.04 -1.45 -7.60
Newcastle Falcons -19.02 -10.63 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints May 19 43 – 12 -1.10 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 54 – 14 11.10 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol May 19 28 – 53 -2.40 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 40 – 22 5.90 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks May 19 10 – 20 14.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jun 01 Northampton Saints 3.90
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Jun 02 Bath 6.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.83 14.73 -3.90
Broncos 7.52 9.07 -1.50
Roosters 7.52 3.08 4.40
Sharks 6.97 2.94 4.00
Storm 6.83 6.15 0.70
Sea Eagles 1.33 -0.48 1.80
Warriors -0.11 -0.07 -0.00
Cowboys -0.78 2.47 -3.20
Knights -0.92 1.84 -2.80
Dolphins -2.16 -7.09 4.90
Raiders -3.66 -4.31 0.70
Eels -5.70 0.14 -5.80
Bulldogs -6.04 -13.35 7.30
Dragons -6.99 -6.93 -0.10
Rabbitohs -7.83 0.87 -8.70
Titans -8.02 -7.89 -0.10
Wests Tigers -10.79 -13.15 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 17 24 – 20 2.10 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 17 12 – 13 -10.40 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Knights May 18 24 – 28 -7.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Roosters May 18 38 – 30 -1.80 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 18 22 – 28 -7.20 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Panthers May 19 22 – 20 -12.70 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Eels May 19 48 – 16 9.90 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins May 19 12 – 24 -11.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 23 Bulldogs 4.00
2 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers May 24 Cowboys 13.00
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm May 24 Storm -2.50
4 Raiders vs. Roosters May 25 Roosters -8.20
5 Sharks vs. Panthers May 25 Panthers -0.90
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 25 Rabbitohs 0.90
7 Broncos vs. Titans May 26 Broncos 18.50
8 Warriors vs. Dolphins May 26 Warriors 9.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 21.29 9.23 12.10
Brisbane Lions 16.55 17.47 -0.90
Melbourne Demons 12.23 13.91 -1.70
Geelong Cats 11.67 10.50 1.20
Western Bulldogs 11.39 6.04 5.40
Collingwood 10.31 14.87 -4.60
GWS Giants 9.26 12.60 -3.30
Carlton Blues 8.12 9.73 -1.60
Adelaide Crows 7.54 9.56 -2.00
Fremantle Dockers 4.53 0.40 4.10
Port Adelaide Power 4.44 8.83 -4.40
Gold Coast Suns 1.17 -4.60 5.80
St Kilda Saints -2.39 -0.63 -1.80
Essendon Bombers -6.43 -17.70 11.30
Hawthorn Hawks -12.22 -11.08 -1.10
Richmond Tigers -24.00 -6.13 -17.90
West Coast Eagles -30.29 -43.10 12.80
North Melbourne -39.00 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats May 16 164 – 100 -20.00 FALSE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues May 17 117 – 65 17.70 TRUE
3 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows May 18 78 – 74 14.00 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs May 18 43 – 70 11.80 FALSE
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Richmond Tigers May 18 163 – 44 40.60 TRUE
6 St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers May 18 55 – 72 5.10 FALSE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne May 19 106 – 66 30.50 TRUE
8 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 19 80 – 79 29.40 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons May 19 105 – 70 -42.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans May 23 Sydney Swans -0.90
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood May 24 Fremantle Dockers 3.20
3 Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns May 25 Carlton Blues 16.00
4 North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power May 25 Port Adelaide Power -34.40
5 Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants May 25 Geelong Cats 11.40
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers May 25 Essendon Bombers -17.60
7 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions May 26 Brisbane Lions -19.80
8 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints May 26 Melbourne Demons 23.60
9 Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles May 26 Adelaide Crows 46.80

 

May 13, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 12.02 10.54 1.50
Leinster 11.42 10.73 0.70
Bulls 10.37 9.00 1.40
Glasgow 8.85 4.19 4.70
Stormers 7.82 8.93 -1.10
Lions 4.66 -4.26 8.90
Ulster 2.29 7.80 -5.50
Edinburgh 0.77 -2.26 3.00
Connacht -0.07 3.17 -3.20
Sharks -1.26 0.85 -2.10
Benetton -2.13 -5.12 3.00
Cardiff Rugby -4.12 -5.16 1.00
Ospreys -4.74 -7.79 3.10
Scarlets -12.94 -2.23 -10.70
Dragons -14.72 -8.14 -6.60
Zebre -18.22 -20.25 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Stormers May 11 21 – 44 -17.40 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Zebre May 11 40 – 14 22.20 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Glasgow May 12 40 – 34 5.40 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster May 12 20 – 31 -11.30 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Benetton May 12 24 – 25 6.30 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby May 12 34 – 13 11.20 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Connacht May 12 47 – 12 10.50 TRUE
8 Leinster vs. Ospreys May 12 61 – 14 15.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Munster May 18 Munster -7.20
2 Zebre vs. Scarlets May 18 Scarlets -1.30
3 Bulls vs. Benetton May 18 Bulls 16.50
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons May 19 Ospreys 12.00
5 Lions vs. Glasgow May 19 Glasgow -0.20
6 Connacht vs. Stormers May 19 Stormers -3.90
7 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby May 19 Sharks 6.90
8 Ulster vs. Leinster May 19 Leinster -7.10

 

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