Posts from April 2024 (24)

April 2, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.22 18.86 -3.60
Chiefs 12.78 13.21 -0.40
Blues 12.51 12.20 0.30
Hurricanes 12.45 9.73 2.70
Brumbies 6.80 6.52 0.30
Reds 1.88 0.07 1.80
Highlanders 0.51 1.17 -0.70
Waratahs -2.18 -1.90 -0.30
Rebels -5.17 -4.59 -0.60
Fijian Drua -6.71 -9.21 2.50
Western Force -7.41 -6.15 -1.30
Moana Pasifika -11.56 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 29 37 – 26 4.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 29 21 – 27 7.10 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 30 31 – 13 2.40 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 30 8 – 47 -19.60 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 12 – 47 -6.90 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 30 19 – 20 -2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Western Force Apr 05 Blues 24.90
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Apr 05 Rebels 4.50
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 06 Chiefs 27.30
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 06 Brumbies 12.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.43 6.82 1.60
Bristol 6.08 1.00 5.10
Leicester Tigers 4.13 6.13 -2.00
Northampton Saints 3.21 2.66 0.60
Bath 2.42 -1.26 3.70
Sale Sharks 1.66 6.46 -4.80
Harlequins 0.83 1.93 -1.10
Exeter Chiefs -0.97 -0.89 -0.10
Gloucester -2.84 -1.45 -1.40
Newcastle Falcons -12.21 -10.63 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 31 24 – 33 -1.60 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Bath Mar 31 40 – 36 4.50 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 31 13 – 19 -11.30 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Mar 31 41 – 30 -1.40 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 31 41 – 5 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 21 Bristol 24.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 21 Exeter Chiefs 2.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 Northampton Saints 5.10
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 21 Saracens 17.30
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 22 Sale Sharks 6.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.23 14.73 -0.50
Broncos 8.38 9.07 -0.70
Storm 6.03 6.15 -0.10
Roosters 5.62 3.08 2.50
Cowboys 2.91 2.47 0.40
Sharks 1.54 2.94 -1.40
Knights 0.84 1.84 -1.00
Warriors 0.12 -0.07 0.20
Eels -0.12 0.14 -0.30
Sea Eagles -0.12 -0.48 0.40
Rabbitohs -2.50 0.87 -3.40
Raiders -2.77 -4.31 1.50
Dolphins -5.16 -7.09 1.90
Dragons -7.59 -6.93 -0.70
Wests Tigers -10.27 -13.15 2.90
Bulldogs -10.92 -13.35 2.40
Titans -12.21 -7.89 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 28 16 – 22 -5.50 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 20 – 16 12.50 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 29 38 – 12 6.10 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 30 20 – 12 -6.20 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Mar 30 14 – 30 -2.40 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 31 20 – 12 6.00 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 31 36 – 22 6.30 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 16 – 17 15.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Apr 04 Storm 0.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 05 Roosters -13.50
3 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 05 Knights 11.40
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 06 Rabbitohs 4.40
5 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Apr 06 Panthers -11.30
6 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Apr 06 Dolphins 8.10
7 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 07 Cowboys 18.10
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 07 Raiders 0.30

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Melbourne Demons 16.86 13.91 3.00
GWS Giants 14.55 12.60 1.90
Geelong Cats 12.35 10.50 1.90
Carlton Blues 11.49 9.73 1.80
Brisbane Lions 11.36 17.47 -6.10
Sydney Swans 11.09 9.23 1.90
Collingwood 10.45 14.87 -4.40
Port Adelaide Power 8.27 8.83 -0.60
Western Bulldogs 8.14 6.04 2.10
Fremantle Dockers 5.17 0.40 4.80
Adelaide Crows 4.76 9.56 -4.80
St Kilda Saints 1.39 -0.63 2.00
Gold Coast Suns -3.85 -4.60 0.80
Richmond Tigers -6.23 -6.13 -0.10
Essendon Bombers -13.24 -17.70 4.50
Hawthorn Hawks -16.31 -11.08 -5.20
North Melbourne -26.94 -25.73 -1.20
West Coast Eagles -45.17 -43.10 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Mar 28 72 – 92 14.40 FALSE
2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Mar 29 81 – 137 -35.60 TRUE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 29 69 – 34 5.50 TRUE
4 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 30 71 – 67 -17.60 FALSE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 30 89 – 96 2.50 FALSE
6 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 31 106 – 30 58.50 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 31 82 – 77 -12.10 FALSE
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats Apr 01 70 – 106 -17.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 Melbourne Demons -3.10
2 Brisbane Lions vs. North Melbourne Apr 05 Brisbane Lions 47.30
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 05 Port Adelaide Power 30.50
4 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Apr 06 Sydney Swans -47.30
5 Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues Apr 06 Fremantle Dockers 2.70
6 Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong Cats Apr 06 Western Bulldogs 4.80
7 Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants Apr 07 GWS Giants -9.40
8 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 07 Richmond Tigers 1.40
9 Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 07 Collingwood 26.80

 

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