Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues | 14.34 | 12.20 | 2.10 |
| Crusaders | 13.91 | 18.86 | -4.90 |
| Chiefs | 13.71 | 13.21 | 0.50 |
| Hurricanes | 12.86 | 9.73 | 3.10 |
| Brumbies | 6.75 | 6.52 | 0.20 |
| Reds | 2.27 | 0.07 | 2.20 |
| Highlanders | -1.48 | 1.17 | -2.60 |
| Waratahs | -2.45 | -1.90 | -0.50 |
| Rebels | -4.54 | -4.59 | 0.10 |
| Western Force | -6.47 | -6.15 | -0.30 |
| Fijian Drua | -7.89 | -9.21 | 1.30 |
| Moana Pasifika | -11.90 | -10.80 | -1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Rebels | Apr 26 | 39 – 0 | 22.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Chiefs | Apr 26 | 22 – 38 | -10.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika | Apr 27 | 24 – 17 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Hurricanes | Apr 27 | 27 – 19 | -2.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Highlanders vs. Western Force | Apr 27 | 7 – 6 | 10.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Reds vs. Blues | Apr 27 | 34 – 41 | -7.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Waratahs | May 03 | Hurricanes | 20.30 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Blues | May 03 | Blues | -13.90 |
| 3 | Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders | May 04 | Highlanders | -7.40 |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Reds | May 04 | Crusaders | 16.60 |
| 5 | Chiefs vs. Western Force | May 04 | Chiefs | 25.20 |
| 6 | Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua | May 04 | Brumbies | 17.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »