Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol | 10.00 | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| Saracens | 9.25 | 6.82 | 2.40 |
| Northampton Saints | 4.14 | 2.66 | 1.50 |
| Bath | 3.31 | -1.26 | 4.60 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.52 | 6.13 | -3.60 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.41 | 6.46 | -4.10 |
| Harlequins | 1.54 | 1.93 | -0.40 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -0.04 | -0.89 | 0.80 |
| Gloucester | -5.48 | -1.45 | -4.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -16.90 | -10.63 | -6.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Saracens | Apr 28 | 12 – 15 | 0.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 28 | 17 – 38 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 28 | 41 – 32 | 2.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol | Apr 28 | 19 – 21 | -1.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 28 | 14 – 35 | -11.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath | May 11 | Bath | -14.20 |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | May 11 | Sale Sharks | 5.90 |
| 3 | Bristol vs. Saracens | May 12 | Bristol | 6.70 |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | May 12 | Exeter Chiefs | 4.40 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester | May 12 | Northampton Saints | 15.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »