AFL Predictions for Week 9
Team Ratings for Week 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 18.30 | 10.50 | 7.80 |
| Melbourne Demons | 17.75 | 13.91 | 3.80 |
| GWS Giants | 15.42 | 12.60 | 2.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 14.74 | 9.23 | 5.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | 10.55 | 17.47 | -6.90 |
| Carlton Blues | 10.07 | 9.73 | 0.30 |
| Collingwood | 9.10 | 14.87 | -5.80 |
| Western Bulldogs | 6.90 | 6.04 | 0.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 6.48 | 8.83 | -2.30 |
| Adelaide Crows | 4.85 | 9.56 | -4.70 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 2.93 | 0.40 | 2.50 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.15 | -0.63 | 0.80 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -5.00 | -4.60 | -0.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -8.52 | -17.70 | 9.20 |
| Richmond Tigers | -11.96 | -6.13 | -5.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -18.00 | -11.08 | -6.90 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.38 | -43.10 | 8.70 |
| North Melbourne | -35.21 | -25.73 | -9.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 24 | 42 – 85 | -26.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood | Apr 25 | 85 – 85 | -30.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 25 | 113 – 59 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 26 | 82 – 72 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 27 | 81 – 138 | -27.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 27 | 118 – 105 | -4.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 27 | 95 – 71 | 2.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 28 | 112 – 75 | 38.80 | TRUE |
| 9 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 28 | 42 – 118 | -16.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 9
Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 02 | Port Adelaide Power | -1.60 |
| 2 | Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood | May 03 | Carlton Blues | 1.00 |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants | May 04 | Sydney Swans | 8.30 |
| 4 | St Kilda Saints vs. North Melbourne | May 04 | St Kilda Saints | 35.40 |
| 5 | Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats | May 04 | Melbourne Demons | 8.40 |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers | May 04 | Essendon Bombers | -16.90 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 05 | Fremantle Dockers | -5.90 |
| 8 | Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 05 | Western Bulldogs | 33.90 |
| 9 | Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 05 | Brisbane Lions | 24.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »