United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15
Team Ratings for Week 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 11.50 | 10.73 | 0.80 |
| Munster | 8.72 | 10.54 | -1.80 |
| Bulls | 8.58 | 9.00 | -0.40 |
| Glasgow | 8.13 | 4.19 | 3.90 |
| Lions | 5.41 | -4.26 | 9.70 |
| Stormers | 4.97 | 8.93 | -4.00 |
| Ulster | 2.97 | 7.80 | -4.80 |
| Connacht | 2.31 | 3.17 | -0.90 |
| Sharks | -0.09 | 0.85 | -0.90 |
| Ospreys | -0.80 | -7.79 | 7.00 |
| Edinburgh | -1.10 | -2.26 | 1.20 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -1.84 | -5.16 | 3.30 |
| Benetton | -3.52 | -5.12 | 1.60 |
| Scarlets | -13.40 | -2.23 | -11.20 |
| Dragons | -14.77 | -8.14 | -6.60 |
| Zebre | -17.06 | -20.25 | 3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 112 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Sharks | Apr 20 | 21 – 10 | 12.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby | Apr 20 | 19 – 17 | 10.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Benetton vs. Dragons | Apr 21 | 36 – 19 | 14.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Lions vs. Leinster | Apr 21 | 44 – 12 | -7.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Munster | Apr 21 | 22 – 27 | 5.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Ospreys | Apr 21 | 21 – 27 | 12.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Connacht vs. Zebre | Apr 21 | 54 – 16 | 20.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Edinburgh vs. Scarlets | Apr 21 | 43 – 18 | 14.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scarlets vs. Sharks | Apr 27 | Sharks | -9.30 |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Benetton | Apr 27 | Ulster | 10.50 |
| 3 | Zebre vs. Glasgow | Apr 27 | Glasgow | -21.20 |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Ospreys | Apr 28 | Bulls | 13.40 |
| 5 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh | Apr 28 | Cardiff Rugby | 3.30 |
| 6 | Lions vs. Munster | Apr 28 | Lions | 0.70 |
| 7 | Stormers vs. Leinster | Apr 28 | Leinster | -2.50 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Connacht | Apr 28 | Connacht | -13.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »