Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol | 9.94 | 1.00 | 8.90 |
| Saracens | 8.87 | 6.82 | 2.10 |
| Northampton Saints | 4.76 | 2.66 | 2.10 |
| Bath | 3.70 | -1.26 | 5.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.58 | 6.13 | -3.50 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.58 | 6.46 | -4.90 |
| Harlequins | 0.92 | 1.93 | -1.00 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -2.25 | -0.89 | -1.40 |
| Gloucester | -3.28 | -1.45 | -1.80 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -16.07 | -10.63 | -5.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 75 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 21 | 85 – 14 | 24.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Apr 21 | 14 – 26 | 2.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers | Apr 21 | 40 – 17 | 5.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Gloucester | Apr 21 | 46 – 24 | 17.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins | Apr 22 | 37 – 31 | 6.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Saracens | Apr 28 | Bath | 0.80 |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 28 | Gloucester | 5.00 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 28 | Harlequins | 2.20 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol | Apr 28 | Bristol | -1.40 |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 28 | Sale Sharks | -11.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »