April 16, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.58 18.86 -4.30
Blues 13.34 12.20 1.10
Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10
Hurricanes 12.94 9.73 3.20
Brumbies 7.32 6.52 0.80
Reds 1.36 0.07 1.30
Highlanders -0.13 1.17 -1.30
Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10
Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70
Fijian Drua -7.37 -9.21 1.80
Western Force -8.25 -6.15 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 12 17 – 14 -9.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 43 – 40 -12.90 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 36 – 23 1.60 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Highlanders Apr 13 47 – 31 -0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 Hurricanes -15.30
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 Reds 6.50
3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Blues 11.00
4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 Crusaders -17.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »