Posts from April 2024 (24)

April 30, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 10.31 9.00 1.30
Munster 10.24 10.54 -0.30
Leinster 9.20 10.73 -1.50
Glasgow 8.91 4.19 4.70
Stormers 7.27 8.93 -1.70
Lions 3.88 -4.26 8.10
Ulster 2.32 7.80 -5.50
Connacht 1.71 3.17 -1.50
Edinburgh 0.40 -2.26 2.70
Sharks -0.52 0.85 -1.40
Ospreys -2.52 -7.79 5.30
Benetton -2.87 -5.12 2.20
Cardiff Rugby -3.34 -5.16 1.80
Scarlets -12.97 -2.23 -10.70
Dragons -14.16 -8.14 -6.00
Zebre -17.84 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Sharks Apr 27 27 – 32 -9.30 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Apr 27 38 – 34 10.50 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 27 9 – 40 -21.20 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Apr 28 61 – 24 13.40 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Apr 28 7 – 24 3.30 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Munster Apr 28 13 – 33 0.70 FALSE
7 Stormers vs. Leinster Apr 28 42 – 12 -2.50 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Apr 28 27 – 34 -13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Stormers May 11 Stormers -17.40
2 Edinburgh vs. Zebre May 11 Edinburgh 22.20
3 Bulls vs. Glasgow May 12 Bulls 5.40
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster May 12 Ulster -11.30
5 Sharks vs. Benetton May 12 Sharks 6.30
6 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby May 12 Lions 11.20
7 Munster vs. Connacht May 12 Munster 10.50
8 Leinster vs. Ospreys May 12 Leinster 15.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.69 7.24 0.50
Stade Rochelais 6.07 6.40 -0.30
Toulon 5.11 3.11 2.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.69 4.07 0.60
Racing 92 3.84 3.42 0.40
Stade Francais 2.50 2.62 -0.10
Section Paloise 0.38 -0.44 0.80
Castres Olympique -0.22 -0.39 0.20
Clermont -0.45 1.47 -1.90
Montpellier -0.53 2.09 -2.60
Lyon -0.64 2.97 -3.60
USA Perpignan -1.02 -3.64 2.60
Bayonne -1.28 -1.32 0.00
US Oyonnax -8.54 -10.00 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 154 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 28 15 – 34 1.90 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Apr 28 38 – 20 4.60 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 28 20 – 25 7.90 FALSE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Apr 28 27 – 17 7.20 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Apr 28 32 – 12 9.60 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Castres Olympique Apr 28 22 – 19 -2.40 FALSE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Apr 29 41 – 18 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais May 12 Bordeaux Begles 5.10
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier May 12 Castres Olympique 6.80
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 12 Racing 92 11.60
4 Section Paloise vs. US Oyonnax May 12 Section Paloise 15.40
5 Toulon vs. Lyon May 12 Toulon 12.30
6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont May 12 USA Perpignan 5.90
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais May 13 Stade Toulousain 11.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.34 12.20 2.10
Crusaders 13.91 18.86 -4.90
Chiefs 13.71 13.21 0.50
Hurricanes 12.86 9.73 3.10
Brumbies 6.75 6.52 0.20
Reds 2.27 0.07 2.20
Highlanders -1.48 1.17 -2.60
Waratahs -2.45 -1.90 -0.50
Rebels -4.54 -4.59 0.10
Western Force -6.47 -6.15 -0.30
Fijian Drua -7.89 -9.21 1.30
Moana Pasifika -11.90 -10.80 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 26 39 – 0 22.10 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 26 22 – 38 -10.40 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 27 24 – 17 9.30 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 27 27 – 19 -2.00 FALSE
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Apr 27 7 – 6 10.90 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Blues Apr 27 34 – 41 -7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs May 03 Hurricanes 20.30
2 Rebels vs. Blues May 03 Blues -13.90
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders May 04 Highlanders -7.40
4 Crusaders vs. Reds May 04 Crusaders 16.60
5 Chiefs vs. Western Force May 04 Chiefs 25.20
6 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua May 04 Brumbies 17.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 10.00 1.00 9.00
Saracens 9.25 6.82 2.40
Northampton Saints 4.14 2.66 1.50
Bath 3.31 -1.26 4.60
Leicester Tigers 2.52 6.13 -3.60
Sale Sharks 2.41 6.46 -4.10
Harlequins 1.54 1.93 -0.40
Exeter Chiefs -0.04 -0.89 0.80
Gloucester -5.48 -1.45 -4.00
Newcastle Falcons -16.90 -10.63 -6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Saracens Apr 28 12 – 15 0.80 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 17 – 38 5.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 28 41 – 32 2.20 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 28 19 – 21 -1.40 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 14 – 35 -11.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath May 11 Bath -14.20
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 11 Sale Sharks 5.90
3 Bristol vs. Saracens May 12 Bristol 6.70
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins May 12 Exeter Chiefs 4.40
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 12 Northampton Saints 15.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.83 14.73 -2.90
Broncos 9.30 9.07 0.20
Storm 6.85 6.15 0.70
Roosters 6.18 3.08 3.10
Sharks 6.18 2.94 3.20
Sea Eagles 1.88 -0.48 2.40
Cowboys 0.31 2.47 -2.20
Knights -0.28 1.84 -2.10
Warriors -0.83 -0.07 -0.80
Dolphins -3.16 -7.09 3.90
Eels -3.90 0.14 -4.00
Raiders -4.49 -4.31 -0.20
Rabbitohs -6.30 0.87 -7.20
Bulldogs -6.99 -13.35 6.40
Dragons -8.17 -6.93 -1.20
Titans -9.43 -7.89 -1.50
Wests Tigers -10.99 -13.15 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 25 24 – 27 18.10 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 18 – 60 -7.30 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 54 – 20 13.70 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 26 32 – 18 8.00 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 27 10 – 34 -16.30 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Panthers Apr 27 20 – 26 -8.90 TRUE
7 Dolphins vs. Knights Apr 28 14 – 18 0.70 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 28 0 – 40 -3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers May 02 Panthers -15.10
2 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders May 03 Sea Eagles 9.40
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 03 Broncos 6.10
4 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers May 04 Bulldogs 7.00
5 Titans vs. Storm May 04 Storm -13.30
6 Cowboys vs. Dolphins May 04 Cowboys 6.50
7 Knights vs. Warriors May 05 Knights 7.60
8 Sharks vs. Dragons May 05 Sharks 17.30

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 18.30 10.50 7.80
Melbourne Demons 17.75 13.91 3.80
GWS Giants 15.42 12.60 2.80
Sydney Swans 14.74 9.23 5.50
Brisbane Lions 10.55 17.47 -6.90
Carlton Blues 10.07 9.73 0.30
Collingwood 9.10 14.87 -5.80
Western Bulldogs 6.90 6.04 0.90
Port Adelaide Power 6.48 8.83 -2.30
Adelaide Crows 4.85 9.56 -4.70
Fremantle Dockers 2.93 0.40 2.50
St Kilda Saints 0.15 -0.63 0.80
Gold Coast Suns -5.00 -4.60 -0.40
Essendon Bombers -8.52 -17.70 9.20
Richmond Tigers -11.96 -6.13 -5.80
Hawthorn Hawks -18.00 -11.08 -6.90
West Coast Eagles -34.38 -43.10 8.70
North Melbourne -35.21 -25.73 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 24 42 – 85 -26.00 TRUE
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood Apr 25 85 – 85 -30.70 FALSE
3 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 25 113 – 59 8.20 TRUE
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 26 82 – 72 16.80 TRUE
5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 27 81 – 138 -27.10 TRUE
6 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Apr 27 118 – 105 -4.70 FALSE
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 27 95 – 71 2.00 TRUE
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 28 112 – 75 38.80 TRUE
9 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans Apr 28 42 – 118 -16.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power May 02 Port Adelaide Power -1.60
2 Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood May 03 Carlton Blues 1.00
3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants May 04 Sydney Swans 8.30
4 St Kilda Saints vs. North Melbourne May 04 St Kilda Saints 35.40
5 Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats May 04 Melbourne Demons 8.40
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 04 Essendon Bombers -16.90
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers May 05 Fremantle Dockers -5.90
8 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 05 Western Bulldogs 33.90
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns May 05 Brisbane Lions 24.50

 

April 23, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.50 10.73 0.80
Munster 8.72 10.54 -1.80
Bulls 8.58 9.00 -0.40
Glasgow 8.13 4.19 3.90
Lions 5.41 -4.26 9.70
Stormers 4.97 8.93 -4.00
Ulster 2.97 7.80 -4.80
Connacht 2.31 3.17 -0.90
Sharks -0.09 0.85 -0.90
Ospreys -0.80 -7.79 7.00
Edinburgh -1.10 -2.26 1.20
Cardiff Rugby -1.84 -5.16 3.30
Benetton -3.52 -5.12 1.60
Scarlets -13.40 -2.23 -11.20
Dragons -14.77 -8.14 -6.60
Zebre -17.06 -20.25 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Sharks Apr 20 21 – 10 12.50 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 20 19 – 17 10.10 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Dragons Apr 21 36 – 19 14.80 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Leinster Apr 21 44 – 12 -7.60 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Munster Apr 21 22 – 27 5.50 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Ospreys Apr 21 21 – 27 12.50 FALSE
7 Connacht vs. Zebre Apr 21 54 – 16 20.80 TRUE
8 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Apr 21 43 – 18 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Sharks Apr 27 Sharks -9.30
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Apr 27 Ulster 10.50
3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 27 Glasgow -21.20
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Apr 28 Bulls 13.40
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Apr 28 Cardiff Rugby 3.30
6 Lions vs. Munster Apr 28 Lions 0.70
7 Stormers vs. Leinster Apr 28 Leinster -2.50
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Apr 28 Connacht -13.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.33 7.24 0.10
Stade Rochelais 5.93 6.40 -0.50
Toulon 5.26 3.11 2.10
Racing 92 4.21 3.42 0.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.03 4.07 -0.00
Stade Francais 3.16 2.62 0.50
Section Paloise 0.83 -0.44 1.30
Castres Olympique 0.05 -0.39 0.40
Montpellier -0.09 2.09 -2.20
Bayonne -0.62 -1.32 0.70
Lyon -1.10 2.97 -4.10
Clermont -1.11 1.47 -2.60
USA Perpignan -1.46 -3.64 2.20
US Oyonnax -8.81 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 21 25 – 24 0.60 TRUE
2 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Apr 21 31 – 23 7.40 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Apr 21 28 – 24 11.00 TRUE
4 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 21 20 – 19 4.80 TRUE
5 US Oyonnax vs. Racing 92 Apr 21 13 – 43 -5.00 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Apr 21 51 – 20 4.50 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Apr 22 41 – 7 10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 28 Bayonne 1.90
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Apr 28 Lyon 4.60
3 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 28 Montpellier 7.90
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Apr 28 Stade Rochelais 7.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Apr 28 Stade Toulousain 9.60
6 US Oyonnax vs. Castres Olympique Apr 28 Castres Olympique -2.40
7 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Apr 29 Clermont 2.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.35 12.20 2.20
Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10
Hurricanes 13.30 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 13.24 18.86 -5.60
Brumbies 6.31 6.52 -0.20
Reds 2.26 0.07 2.20
Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20
Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10
Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70
Western Force -6.91 -6.15 -0.80
Fijian Drua -7.73 -9.21 1.50
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 15 – 38 -15.30 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 31 – 0 6.50 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 46 – 7 11.00 TRUE
4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 37 – 15 -17.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 26 Crusaders 22.10
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 26 Chiefs -10.40
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 27 Fijian Drua 9.30
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 27 Hurricanes -2.00
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Apr 27 Highlanders 10.90
6 Reds vs. Blues Apr 27 Blues -7.10

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 9.94 1.00 8.90
Saracens 8.87 6.82 2.10
Northampton Saints 4.76 2.66 2.10
Bath 3.70 -1.26 5.00
Leicester Tigers 2.58 6.13 -3.50
Sale Sharks 1.58 6.46 -4.90
Harlequins 0.92 1.93 -1.00
Exeter Chiefs -2.25 -0.89 -1.40
Gloucester -3.28 -1.45 -1.80
Newcastle Falcons -16.07 -10.63 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 21 85 – 14 24.30 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 21 14 – 26 2.60 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 40 – 17 5.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 21 46 – 24 17.30 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 22 37 – 31 6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Saracens Apr 28 Bath 0.80
2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 Gloucester 5.00
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 28 Harlequins 2.20
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 28 Bristol -1.40
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 Sale Sharks -11.60

 

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