Posts from March 2024 (19)

March 13, 2024

A Question for Sports Prediction Followers

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I have been a bit shocked by the number of hits I have got for my AFL predictions. I never advertised that I would predict the AFL this year, just said at one stage last year that I might.

For the first week of AFL I got about 40 percent more hits on the AFL predictions compared to the Super Rugby (the next most hits of that week’s predictions). I thought it might be due to posting the AFL predictions first, so this week I posted the AFL predictions last, and currently there are nearly twice as many hits for the AFL as for Super Rugby. The NRL predictions have been popular for some time and have many more hits.

I would be interested in hearing how anybody who is interested in the AFL predictions came across them because I seriously thought I would initially just get a trickle of interest since my other predictions are for rugby or rugby league.

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March 11, 2024

AFL Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 15.52 17.47 -2.00
GWS Giants 14.32 12.60 1.70
Collingwood 13.16 14.87 -1.70
Melbourne Demons 11.96 13.91 -1.90
Carlton Blues 11.68 9.73 2.00
Sydney Swans 11.17 9.23 1.90
Geelong Cats 10.50 10.50 0.00
Adelaide Crows 9.56 9.56 -0.00
Port Adelaide Power 8.83 8.83 0.00
Western Bulldogs 6.04 6.04 0.00
Fremantle Dockers 0.40 0.40 0.00
St Kilda Saints -0.63 -0.63 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -2.71 -4.60 1.90
Richmond Tigers -8.03 -6.13 -1.90
Hawthorn Hawks -11.08 -11.08 -0.00
Essendon Bombers -17.70 -17.70 -0.00
North Melbourne -25.73 -25.73 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -43.10 -43.10 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 07 86 – 64 4.30 TRUE
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Mar 08 85 – 86 16.70 FALSE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 09 99 – 60 10.50 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 114 – 82 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 14 Carlton Blues 19.70
2 Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans Mar 15 Collingwood 11.00
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 16 Hawthorn Hawks -6.60
4 GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne Mar 16 GWS Giants 49.00
5 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 Geelong Cats 20.10
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 16 Adelaide Crows -3.30
7 Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 17 Melbourne Demons 14.90
8 Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 17 Port Adelaide Power 60.90
9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 17 Brisbane Lions -6.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.90 14.73 -0.80
Broncos 8.09 9.07 -1.00
Storm 6.99 6.15 0.80
Roosters 4.06 3.08 1.00
Cowboys 3.58 2.47 1.10
Sharks 3.44 2.94 0.50
Knights 0.34 1.84 -1.50
Sea Eagles 0.34 -0.48 0.80
Eels 0.24 0.14 0.10
Rabbitohs 0.05 0.87 -0.80
Warriors -0.57 -0.07 -0.50
Raiders -2.82 -4.31 1.50
Dragons -5.38 -6.93 1.50
Dolphins -8.21 -7.09 -1.10
Titans -9.44 -7.89 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.15 -0.00
Bulldogs -13.46 -13.35 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 03 36 – 24 -1.30 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 03 20 – 10 -6.00 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 07 12 – 28 9.20 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Mar 08 12 – 16 4.00 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 08 8 – 0 -5.60 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 09 26 – 8 16.50 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 09 4 – 28 2.00 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Mar 10 18 – 43 -6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 14 Broncos 11.00
2 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 15 Sharks 19.90
3 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 15 Panthers 16.70
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Raiders 13.30
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Mar 16 Cowboys 6.20
6 Storm vs. Warriors Mar 16 Storm 14.60
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 17 Roosters -0.70
8 Dolphins vs. Dragons Mar 17 Dolphins 0.20

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.55 7.24 0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.06 6.40 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 3.78 4.07 -0.30
Stade Francais 3.32 2.62 0.70
Toulon 3.22 3.11 0.10
Racing 92 2.77 3.42 -0.70
Montpellier 1.33 2.09 -0.80
Castres Olympique 1.24 -0.39 1.60
Section Paloise 0.23 -0.44 0.70
Bayonne 0.12 -1.32 1.40
Clermont 0.12 1.47 -1.40
Lyon -0.87 2.97 -3.80
USA Perpignan -3.27 -3.64 0.40
US Oyonnax -7.98 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Mar 10 23 – 3 8.40 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. US Oyonnax Mar 10 15 – 15 15.60 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Mar 10 34 – 19 3.60 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 10 10 – 3 3.70 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Mar 10 42 – 40 7.10 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 10 27 – 17 -5.30 FALSE
7 Racing 92 vs. Toulon Mar 11 20 – 6 5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Montpellier Mar 24 Toulon 8.40
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Mar 24 Castres Olympique 5.00
3 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Mar 24 Clermont 6.40
4 Stade Francais vs. Lyon Mar 24 Stade Francais 10.70
5 US Oyonnax vs. USA Perpignan Mar 24 US Oyonnax 1.80
6 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 24 Bayonne 0.60
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 25 Bordeaux Begles 2.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.11 18.86 -2.70
Chiefs 14.07 13.21 0.90
Blues 11.36 12.20 -0.80
Hurricanes 10.60 9.73 0.90
Brumbies 5.70 6.52 -0.80
Highlanders 1.62 1.17 0.50
Reds 1.56 0.07 1.50
Waratahs -1.59 -1.90 0.30
Rebels -4.52 -4.59 0.10
Western Force -6.75 -6.15 -0.60
Fijian Drua -8.26 -9.21 1.00
Moana Pasifika -10.79 -10.80 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Mar 08 23 – 29 -0.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 08 21 – 23 2.40 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 09 20 – 10 -21.60 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 09 22 – 19 16.60 TRUE
5 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 09 29 – 21 1.30 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Chiefs Mar 09 25 – 19 -8.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 Crusaders 8.50
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 15 Reds -3.10
3 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 15 Western Force 9.00
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Mar 16 Highlanders 0.90
5 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Mar 16 Chiefs 27.30
6 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 16 Blues -7.90

 

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March 5, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.19 10.73 1.50
Bulls 11.59 9.00 2.60
Munster 8.55 10.54 -2.00
Glasgow 7.09 4.19 2.90
Stormers 5.50 8.93 -3.40
Ulster 4.49 7.80 -3.30
Connacht 3.74 3.17 0.60
Lions 1.93 -4.26 6.20
Edinburgh -0.44 -2.26 1.80
Sharks -1.74 0.85 -2.60
Ospreys -3.37 -7.79 4.40
Benetton -3.68 -5.12 1.40
Cardiff Rugby -4.26 -5.16 0.90
Scarlets -11.14 -2.23 -8.90
Dragons -14.92 -8.14 -6.80
Zebre -15.51 -20.25 4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Mar 02 19 – 15 7.70 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 02 45 – 29 30.20 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 40 – 10 1.60 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Glasgow Mar 03 9 – 19 -6.00 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 03 40 – 22 6.20 TRUE
6 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 03 26 – 10 19.60 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Mar 03 20 – 33 -12.30 TRUE
8 Ulster vs. Dragons Mar 03 49 – 26 23.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 23 Glasgow 15.30
2 Ospreys vs. Munster Mar 23 Munster -7.90
3 Sharks vs. Ulster Mar 23 Ulster -2.20
4 Scarlets vs. Benetton Mar 24 Benetton -3.50
5 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Mar 24 Stormers 9.90
6 Connacht vs. Lions Mar 24 Connacht 5.80
7 Dragons vs. Bulls Mar 24 Bulls -22.50
8 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 24 Leinster -23.70

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.06 7.24 0.80
Stade Rochelais 5.66 6.40 -0.70
Bordeaux Begles 3.94 4.07 -0.10
Stade Francais 3.72 2.62 1.10
Toulon 3.66 3.11 0.50
Racing 92 2.33 3.42 -1.10
Castres Olympique 1.63 -0.39 2.00
Montpellier 1.17 2.09 -0.90
Clermont 0.63 1.47 -0.80
Section Paloise 0.48 -0.44 0.90
Bayonne -0.14 -1.32 1.20
Lyon -1.27 2.97 -4.20
USA Perpignan -3.78 -3.64 -0.10
US Oyonnax -8.49 -10.00 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 03 39 – 10 6.20 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Mar 03 21 – 5 7.20 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Mar 03 25 – 12 9.40 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Mar 03 33 – 6 11.90 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 03 44 – 22 13.10 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Montpellier Mar 03 35 – 39 -3.10 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Mar 04 42 – 3 9.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Mar 10 Stade Rochelais 8.40
2 Clermont vs. US Oyonnax Mar 10 Clermont 15.60
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Mar 10 Lyon 3.60
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 10 Montpellier 3.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Mar 10 Section Paloise 7.10
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 10 Stade Toulousain -5.30
7 Racing 92 vs. Toulon Mar 11 Racing 92 5.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.22 18.86 -1.60
Chiefs 14.67 13.21 1.50
Blues 11.83 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 10.13 9.73 0.40
Brumbies 6.26 6.52 -0.30
Highlanders 1.31 1.17 0.10
Reds 0.96 0.07 0.90
Waratahs -1.28 -1.90 0.60
Rebels -4.90 -4.59 -0.30
Western Force -7.31 -6.15 -1.20
Fijian Drua -9.37 -9.21 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.40 -10.80 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 29 – 37 -10.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 48 – 34 4.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 39 – 36 -1.70 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 24 – 37 20.80 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 46 – 12 6.40 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 38 – 33 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Mar 08 Rebels -0.50
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 08 Waratahs 2.40
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 09 Crusaders -21.60
4 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 09 Brumbies 16.60
5 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 09 Hurricanes 1.30
6 Reds vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Chiefs -8.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

So this is new. The methodology is the same, but there are a few quirks when it comes to home ground advantage. I have used the listed home grounds in making decisions, but it is a lot more problematic. Think for example Collingwood versus St Kilda Saints played at Marvel Stadium. Should I give the Saints home ground advantage? I do. Also should home ground advantage be the same for all teams and locations. I have done that, but in future may allocate different home ground advantage for teams in the same city compared to teams playing a team from a different state or city.

You may also note that Collingwood’s rating is less than the Lions. That is how the numbers played out. I am actually fairly happy with it statistically given the result of the Grand Final (Collingwood by 4 points) which given the home ground advantage is pretty close.

Note that I am a long-time Collingwood supporter, but as is the case with all my predictions I try and make them as objective as possible, using a simple statistical method.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 17.47 17.47 -0.00
Collingwood 14.87 14.87 0.00
Melbourne Demons 13.91 13.91 0.00
GWS Giants 12.60 12.60 -0.00
Geelong Cats 10.50 10.50 0.00
Carlton Blues 9.73 9.73 0.00
Adelaide Crows 9.56 9.56 -0.00
Sydney Swans 9.23 9.23 0.00
Port Adelaide Power 8.83 8.83 0.00
Western Bulldogs 6.04 6.04 0.00
Fremantle Dockers 0.40 0.40 0.00
St Kilda Saints -0.63 -0.63 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -4.60 -4.60 0.00
Richmond Tigers -6.13 -6.13 0.00
Hawthorn Hawks -11.08 -11.08 -0.00
Essendon Bombers -17.70 -17.70 -0.00
North Melbourne -25.73 -25.73 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -43.10 -43.10 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 07 Sydney Swans 4.30
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Mar 08 Brisbane Lions 16.70
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 09 Gold Coast Suns 10.50
4 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 GWS Giants 6.70

 

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