March 26, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.77 18.86 -4.10
Chiefs 13.23 13.21 0.00
Blues 11.76 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 11.44 9.73 1.70
Brumbies 6.88 6.52 0.40
Reds 1.81 0.07 1.70
Highlanders 1.52 1.17 0.40
Waratahs -1.64 -1.90 0.30
Rebels -5.72 -4.59 -1.10
Western Force -6.78 -6.15 -0.60
Fijian Drua -7.34 -9.21 1.90
Moana Pasifika -10.81 -10.80 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 22 54 – 28 21.50 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 22 60 – 21 21.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 23 39 – 36 -3.60 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 23 28 – 21 15.50 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 23 26 – 6 -1.60 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 23 40 – 31 -6.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 29 Crusaders 4.50
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 29 Waratahs 7.10
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 30 Fijian Drua 2.40
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 30 Blues -19.60
5 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 Hurricanes -6.90
6 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 30 Brumbies -2.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Benjamin O'Brien

    Chiefs vs Crusaders (+56 vs -51) statistics don’t lie.

    9 months ago

  • avatar
    Johnny Sins

    From week 1 to 6 crusaders are favored to win lol what a clown.

    9 months ago