NRL Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 14.20 | 14.73 | -0.50 |
| Broncos | 7.18 | 9.07 | -1.90 |
| Storm | 6.03 | 6.15 | -0.10 |
| Roosters | 5.65 | 3.08 | 2.60 |
| Cowboys | 4.11 | 2.47 | 1.60 |
| Sharks | 1.05 | 2.94 | -1.90 |
| Knights | 0.98 | 1.84 | -0.90 |
| Eels | 0.86 | 0.14 | 0.70 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.75 | -0.48 | 1.20 |
| Warriors | -0.02 | -0.07 | 0.10 |
| Rabbitohs | -1.96 | 0.87 | -2.80 |
| Raiders | -2.29 | -4.31 | 2.00 |
| Dolphins | -6.00 | -7.09 | 1.10 |
| Dragons | -8.46 | -6.93 | -1.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.25 | -13.15 | 1.90 |
| Titans | -11.37 | -7.89 | -3.50 |
| Bulldogs | -11.46 | -13.35 | 1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Broncos | Mar 21 | 34 – 12 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Mar 22 | 18 – 10 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 22 | 48 – 6 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Mar 23 | 32 – 0 | -1.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Cowboys | Mar 23 | 24 – 46 | -7.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Sharks | Mar 23 | 32 – 6 | -14.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 24 | 28 – 24 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Knights vs. Storm | Mar 24 | 14 – 12 | -2.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Panthers | Mar 28 | Panthers | -5.50 |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Mar 29 | Rabbitohs | 12.50 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 29 | Broncos | 6.10 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 30 | Sea Eagles | -6.20 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Dolphins | Mar 30 | Dolphins | -2.40 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Knights | Mar 31 | Warriors | 6.00 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Mar 31 | Sharks | 6.30 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 01 | Eels | 15.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »