Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 16.11 | 18.86 | -2.70 |
| Chiefs | 14.07 | 13.21 | 0.90 |
| Blues | 11.36 | 12.20 | -0.80 |
| Hurricanes | 10.60 | 9.73 | 0.90 |
| Brumbies | 5.70 | 6.52 | -0.80 |
| Highlanders | 1.62 | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Reds | 1.56 | 0.07 | 1.50 |
| Waratahs | -1.59 | -1.90 | 0.30 |
| Rebels | -4.52 | -4.59 | 0.10 |
| Western Force | -6.75 | -6.15 | -0.60 |
| Fijian Drua | -8.26 | -9.21 | 1.00 |
| Moana Pasifika | -10.79 | -10.80 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels | Mar 08 | 23 – 29 | -0.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Highlanders | Mar 08 | 21 – 23 | 2.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders | Mar 09 | 20 – 10 | -21.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Western Force | Mar 09 | 22 – 19 | 16.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | Mar 09 | 29 – 21 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Reds vs. Chiefs | Mar 09 | 25 – 19 | -8.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Hurricanes | Mar 15 | Crusaders | 8.50 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Reds | Mar 15 | Reds | -3.10 |
| 3 | Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika | Mar 15 | Western Force | 9.00 |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Brumbies | Mar 16 | Highlanders | 0.90 |
| 5 | Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua | Mar 16 | Chiefs | 27.30 |
| 6 | Waratahs vs. Blues | Mar 16 | Blues | -7.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Tough weekend last week with Crusaders handling errors and a brilliant contest between Chiefs/ Reds.
Hopefully back to form this weekend.
Thanks for the continued posts David
8 months ago