United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12
Team Ratings for Week 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 12.19 | 10.73 | 1.50 |
| Bulls | 11.59 | 9.00 | 2.60 |
| Munster | 8.55 | 10.54 | -2.00 |
| Glasgow | 7.09 | 4.19 | 2.90 |
| Stormers | 5.50 | 8.93 | -3.40 |
| Ulster | 4.49 | 7.80 | -3.30 |
| Connacht | 3.74 | 3.17 | 0.60 |
| Lions | 1.93 | -4.26 | 6.20 |
| Edinburgh | -0.44 | -2.26 | 1.80 |
| Sharks | -1.74 | 0.85 | -2.60 |
| Ospreys | -3.37 | -7.79 | 4.40 |
| Benetton | -3.68 | -5.12 | 1.40 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -4.26 | -5.16 | 0.90 |
| Scarlets | -11.14 | -2.23 | -8.90 |
| Dragons | -14.92 | -8.14 | -6.80 |
| Zebre | -15.51 | -20.25 | 4.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 88 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh vs. Ospreys | Mar 02 | 19 – 15 | 7.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Munster vs. Zebre | Mar 02 | 45 – 29 | 30.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Mar 02 | 40 – 10 | 1.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Benetton vs. Glasgow | Mar 03 | 9 – 19 | -6.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Mar 03 | 40 – 22 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Connacht vs. Scarlets | Mar 03 | 26 – 10 | 19.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster | Mar 03 | 20 – 33 | -12.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Ulster vs. Dragons | Mar 03 | 49 – 26 | 23.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 12
Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby | Mar 23 | Glasgow | 15.30 |
| 2 | Ospreys vs. Munster | Mar 23 | Munster | -7.90 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Ulster | Mar 23 | Ulster | -2.20 |
| 4 | Scarlets vs. Benetton | Mar 24 | Benetton | -3.50 |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Edinburgh | Mar 24 | Stormers | 9.90 |
| 6 | Connacht vs. Lions | Mar 24 | Connacht | 5.80 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Bulls | Mar 24 | Bulls | -22.50 |
| 8 | Zebre vs. Leinster | Mar 24 | Leinster | -23.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David,
How are the ratings calculated with reference to teams scores or margins?
8 months ago
Starting from some years back (depending on how much relevant data I have) all ratings are zero, then I just adjust the ratings after each game using what is called the error-correction form of exponential smoothing (there are a couple of wrinkles but basically that).
8 months ago