AFL Predictions for Week 1
Team Ratings for Week 1
So this is new. The methodology is the same, but there are a few quirks when it comes to home ground advantage. I have used the listed home grounds in making decisions, but it is a lot more problematic. Think for example Collingwood versus St Kilda Saints played at Marvel Stadium. Should I give the Saints home ground advantage? I do. Also should home ground advantage be the same for all teams and locations. I have done that, but in future may allocate different home ground advantage for teams in the same city compared to teams playing a team from a different state or city.
You may also note that Collingwood’s rating is less than the Lions. That is how the numbers played out. I am actually fairly happy with it statistically given the result of the Grand Final (Collingwood by 4 points) which given the home ground advantage is pretty close.
Note that I am a long-time Collingwood supporter, but as is the case with all my predictions I try and make them as objective as possible, using a simple statistical method.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 17.47 | 17.47 | -0.00 |
| Collingwood | 14.87 | 14.87 | 0.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | 13.91 | 13.91 | 0.00 |
| GWS Giants | 12.60 | 12.60 | -0.00 |
| Geelong Cats | 10.50 | 10.50 | 0.00 |
| Carlton Blues | 9.73 | 9.73 | 0.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 9.56 | 9.56 | -0.00 |
| Sydney Swans | 9.23 | 9.23 | 0.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 8.83 | 8.83 | 0.00 |
| Western Bulldogs | 6.04 | 6.04 | 0.00 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.63 | -0.63 | -0.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -4.60 | -4.60 | 0.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -6.13 | -6.13 | 0.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -11.08 | -11.08 | -0.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -17.70 | -17.70 | -0.00 |
| North Melbourne | -25.73 | -25.73 | -0.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | -43.10 | -43.10 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Week 1
Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 07 | Sydney Swans | 4.30 |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues | Mar 08 | Brisbane Lions | 16.70 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 09 | Gold Coast Suns | 10.50 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Collingwood | Mar 09 | GWS Giants | 6.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Thanks, David, I’ve been waiting for this (as you know). Go the Cats!
I admire your “objective as possible”. I find it nearly impossible to tip anyone against the Blues in Super Rugby even though I am aware of my bias. Nowadays, I just consider it the price I pay for living a healthy, enjoyable life.
9 months ago