Posts from March 2024 (19)

March 26, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.22 10.73 1.50
Bulls 11.44 9.00 2.40
Munster 8.76 10.54 -1.80
Stormers 6.44 8.93 -2.50
Glasgow 6.19 4.19 2.00
Lions 4.06 -4.26 8.30
Ulster 3.53 7.80 -4.30
Connacht 1.61 3.17 -1.60
Sharks -0.79 0.85 -1.60
Edinburgh -1.38 -2.26 0.90
Cardiff Rugby -3.37 -5.16 1.80
Ospreys -3.58 -7.79 4.20
Benetton -4.33 -5.12 0.80
Scarlets -10.50 -2.23 -8.30
Dragons -14.77 -8.14 -6.60
Zebre -15.54 -20.25 4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 23 17 – 13 15.30 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Munster Mar 23 17 – 27 -7.90 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Ulster Mar 23 22 – 12 -2.20 FALSE
4 Scarlets vs. Benetton Mar 24 16 – 13 -3.50 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Mar 24 43 – 21 9.90 TRUE
6 Connacht vs. Lions Mar 24 14 – 38 5.80 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Bulls Mar 24 10 – 31 -22.50 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 24 7 – 31 -23.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Zebre Mar 30 Dragons 4.80
2 Leinster vs. Bulls Mar 30 Leinster 4.80
3 Benetton vs. Connacht Mar 30 Connacht -1.90
4 Sharks vs. Edinburgh Mar 30 Sharks 4.60
5 Ospreys vs. Lions Mar 31 Lions -3.60
6 Stormers vs. Ulster Mar 31 Stormers 6.90
7 Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 31 Munster 16.10
8 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Mar 31 Glasgow -12.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.54 7.24 0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.04 6.40 -0.40
Toulon 4.34 3.11 1.20
Bordeaux Begles 3.79 4.07 -0.30
Stade Francais 3.23 2.62 0.60
Racing 92 3.12 3.42 -0.30
Castres Olympique 0.89 -0.39 1.30
Section Paloise 0.40 -0.44 0.80
Montpellier 0.22 2.09 -1.90
Bayonne 0.14 -1.32 1.50
Clermont -0.05 1.47 -1.50
Lyon -0.79 2.97 -3.80
USA Perpignan -3.13 -3.64 0.50
US Oyonnax -8.12 -10.00 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Toulon vs. Montpellier Mar 24 54 – 7 8.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Mar 24 21 – 23 5.00 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Mar 24 31 – 28 6.40 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Lyon Mar 24 22 – 13 10.70 TRUE
5 US Oyonnax vs. USA Perpignan Mar 24 14 – 15 1.80 FALSE
6 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 24 13 – 12 0.60 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 25 31 – 28 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 31 Lyon 1.90
2 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 31 Montpellier 3.50
3 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Mar 31 Racing 92 9.70
4 Stade Rochelais vs. US Oyonnax Mar 31 Stade Rochelais 20.70
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 31 Stade Toulousain 13.60
6 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Mar 31 USA Perpignan 2.50
7 Bayonne vs. Toulon Apr 01 Bayonne 2.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.77 18.86 -4.10
Chiefs 13.23 13.21 0.00
Blues 11.76 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 11.44 9.73 1.70
Brumbies 6.88 6.52 0.40
Reds 1.81 0.07 1.70
Highlanders 1.52 1.17 0.40
Waratahs -1.64 -1.90 0.30
Rebels -5.72 -4.59 -1.10
Western Force -6.78 -6.15 -0.60
Fijian Drua -7.34 -9.21 1.90
Moana Pasifika -10.81 -10.80 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 22 54 – 28 21.50 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 22 60 – 21 21.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 23 39 – 36 -3.60 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 23 28 – 21 15.50 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 23 26 – 6 -1.60 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 23 40 – 31 -6.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 29 Crusaders 4.50
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 29 Waratahs 7.10
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 30 Fijian Drua 2.40
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 30 Blues -19.60
5 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 Hurricanes -6.90
6 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 30 Brumbies -2.10

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.53 6.82 2.70
Bristol 5.41 1.00 4.40
Leicester Tigers 4.62 6.13 -1.50
Bath 2.37 -1.26 3.60
Northampton Saints 2.12 2.66 -0.50
Exeter Chiefs 1.79 -0.89 2.70
Harlequins 0.89 1.93 -1.00
Sale Sharks -1.10 6.46 -7.60
Gloucester -2.17 -1.45 -0.70
Newcastle Falcons -12.70 -10.63 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 52 – 21 4.90 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Mar 23 25 – 27 15.90 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 24 25 – 16 22.90 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 24 52 – 7 8.60 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 25 42 – 24 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 31 Bristol -1.60
2 Harlequins vs. Bath Mar 31 Harlequins 4.50
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 31 Leicester Tigers -11.30
4 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Mar 31 Saracens -1.40
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 31 Sale Sharks 3.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.20 14.73 -0.50
Broncos 7.18 9.07 -1.90
Storm 6.03 6.15 -0.10
Roosters 5.65 3.08 2.60
Cowboys 4.11 2.47 1.60
Sharks 1.05 2.94 -1.90
Knights 0.98 1.84 -0.90
Eels 0.86 0.14 0.70
Sea Eagles 0.75 -0.48 1.20
Warriors -0.02 -0.07 0.10
Rabbitohs -1.96 0.87 -2.80
Raiders -2.29 -4.31 2.00
Dolphins -6.00 -7.09 1.10
Dragons -8.46 -6.93 -1.50
Wests Tigers -11.25 -13.15 1.90
Titans -11.37 -7.89 -3.50
Bulldogs -11.46 -13.35 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Mar 21 34 – 12 8.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 22 18 – 10 9.50 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 48 – 6 6.40 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 23 32 – 0 -1.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Cowboys Mar 23 24 – 46 -7.80 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Mar 23 32 – 6 -14.00 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 28 – 24 3.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Storm Mar 24 14 – 12 -2.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 28 Panthers -5.50
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 Rabbitohs 12.50
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 29 Broncos 6.10
4 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 30 Sea Eagles -6.20
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Mar 30 Dolphins -2.40
6 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 31 Warriors 6.00
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 31 Sharks 6.30
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 Eels 15.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Melbourne Demons 15.81 13.91 1.90
GWS Giants 14.55 12.60 1.90
Brisbane Lions 13.59 17.47 -3.90
Sydney Swans 12.97 9.23 3.70
Geelong Cats 11.00 10.50 0.50
Carlton Blues 10.06 9.73 0.30
Port Adelaide Power 9.32 8.83 0.50
Collingwood 8.23 14.87 -6.60
Adelaide Crows 6.71 9.56 -2.90
Western Bulldogs 6.21 6.04 0.20
Fremantle Dockers 3.21 0.40 2.80
St Kilda Saints 2.90 -0.63 3.50
Gold Coast Suns -3.85 -4.60 0.80
Richmond Tigers -8.10 -6.13 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -14.74 -17.70 3.00
Hawthorn Hawks -14.96 -11.08 -3.90
North Melbourne -25.51 -25.73 0.20
West Coast Eagles -43.24 -43.10 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Mar 21 94 – 79 -18.70 FALSE
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 77 – 96 8.40 FALSE
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 23 76 – 102 -18.00 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 38 – 93 -27.00 TRUE
5 Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 23 131 – 101 38.60 TRUE
6 Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 24 115 – 67 14.70 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 24 92 – 122 -5.00 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants Mar 24 43 – 108 -46.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Mar 28 Brisbane Lions 14.40
2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Mar 29 Carlton Blues -35.60
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 29 Fremantle Dockers 5.50
4 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 30 St Kilda Saints -17.60
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 30 Port Adelaide Power 2.50
6 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 31 Western Bulldogs 58.50
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 31 Sydney Swans -12.10
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats Apr 01 Geelong Cats -17.00

 

March 21, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.58 18.86 -3.30
Chiefs 13.61 13.21 0.40
Hurricanes 11.13 9.73 1.40
Blues 10.94 12.20 -1.30
Brumbies 6.18 6.52 -0.30
Reds 2.45 0.07 2.40
Highlanders 1.13 1.17 -0.00
Waratahs -1.17 -1.90 0.70
Rebels -5.41 -4.59 -0.80
Western Force -7.42 -6.15 -1.30
Fijian Drua -7.81 -9.21 1.40
Moana Pasifika -10.11 -10.80 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 10 – 14 8.50 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 15 26 – 53 -3.10 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 15 14 – 22 9.00 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Mar 16 21 – 27 0.90 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Mar 16 46 – 29 27.30 TRUE
6 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 16 10 – 12 -7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 22 Hurricanes 21.50
2 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 22 Brumbies 21.30
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 23 Waratahs -3.60
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 23 Chiefs 15.50
5 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 23 Crusaders -1.60
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 23 Reds -6.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.48 6.82 -0.30
Leicester Tigers 6.17 6.13 0.00
Northampton Saints 4.34 2.66 1.70
Harlequins 3.93 1.93 2.00
Bristol 3.19 1.00 2.20
Exeter Chiefs 3.02 -0.89 3.90
Bath 1.44 -1.26 2.70
Sale Sharks -0.18 6.46 -6.60
Gloucester -3.72 -1.45 -2.30
Newcastle Falcons -13.92 -10.63 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 27 19 – 20 4.80 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 28 57 – 44 6.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 28 38 – 13 24.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 28 40 – 22 7.60 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 29 32 – 20 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 Bristol 4.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Mar 23 Leicester Tigers 15.90
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 24 Exeter Chiefs 22.90
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 24 Saracens 8.60
5 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 25 Bath 7.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.36 14.73 -1.40
Broncos 8.02 9.07 -1.00
Storm 6.33 6.15 0.20
Roosters 3.57 3.08 0.50
Sharks 3.38 2.94 0.40
Cowboys 3.24 2.47 0.80
Sea Eagles 0.83 -0.48 1.30
Eels 0.79 0.14 0.70
Knights 0.68 1.84 -1.20
Rabbitohs 0.12 0.87 -0.70
Warriors 0.08 -0.07 0.20
Raiders -2.39 -4.31 1.90
Dolphins -6.00 -7.09 1.10
Dragons -7.59 -6.93 -0.70
Titans -9.44 -7.89 -1.60
Bulldogs -13.39 -13.35 -0.00
Wests Tigers -13.57 -13.15 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 14 28 – 18 11.00 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 15 25 – 6 19.90 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 15 26 – 18 16.70 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 32 – 12 13.30 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Mar 16 21 – 20 6.20 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Warriors Mar 16 30 – 26 14.60 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 17 21 – 14 -0.70 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Dragons Mar 17 38 – 0 0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Mar 21 Panthers 8.30
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 22 Warriors 9.50
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 Roosters 6.40
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 23 Titans -1.00
5 Dragons vs. Cowboys Mar 23 Cowboys -7.80
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Mar 23 Sharks -14.00
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 Eels 3.00
8 Knights vs. Storm Mar 24 Storm -2.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Melbourne Demons 13.95 13.91 0.00
Sydney Swans 13.91 9.23 4.70
Brisbane Lions 13.59 17.47 -3.90
GWS Giants 13.21 12.60 0.60
Collingwood 10.41 14.87 -4.50
Carlton Blues 10.06 9.73 0.30
Geelong Cats 9.17 10.50 -1.30
Port Adelaide Power 7.62 8.83 -1.20
Adelaide Crows 6.91 9.56 -2.70
Western Bulldogs 4.05 6.04 -2.00
Fremantle Dockers 2.33 0.40 1.90
St Kilda Saints 0.71 -0.63 1.30
Gold Coast Suns -0.06 -4.60 4.50
Richmond Tigers -6.41 -6.13 -0.30
Hawthorn Hawks -13.10 -11.08 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -15.68 -17.70 2.00
North Melbourne -24.62 -25.73 1.10
West Coast Eagles -41.90 -43.10 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 13 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 14 86 – 81 19.70 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans Mar 15 69 – 102 11.00 FALSE
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 16 107 – 83 -6.60 FALSE
4 GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne Mar 16 121 – 82 49.00 TRUE
5 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 76 – 68 20.10 TRUE
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 16 99 – 60 -3.30 FALSE
7 Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 17 109 – 64 14.90 TRUE
8 Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 17 120 – 70 60.90 TRUE
9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 17 93 – 70 -6.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Mar 21 Collingwood -18.70
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 Adelaide Crows 6.70
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 23 Fremantle Dockers -18.00
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 Melbourne Demons -27.00
5 Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 23 Sydney Swans 38.60
6 Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 24 Western Bulldogs 13.10
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 24 Port Adelaide Power -5.00
8 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants Mar 24 GWS Giants -46.10

 

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